Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1053.19961.163
2041.96443.967
3034.57634.813
4028.81427.716
5024.30122.579
6020.52718.020
7016.90114.500
8013.18111.248
909.1927.858

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
195.868118.124
281.03098.521
374.87891.112
469.83185.168
565.64680.860
661.98175.014
759.75571.011
857.48167.354
955.46763.787
1053.19961.163
1151.98759.022
1250.68356.696
1349.51854.959
1448.16653.242
1546.97151.381
1645.98949.924
1745.03548.246
1843.97946.562
1942.88645.103
2041.96443.967
2141.15542.882
2240.49341.689
2339.83940.863
2439.10839.674
2538.27938.936
2637.54838.306
2736.91737.355
2836.18536.608
2935.36535.748
3034.57634.813
3134.00433.967
3233.51133.117
3333.04732.453
3432.43631.805
3531.81930.924
3631.19830.228
3730.53029.541
3829.91528.906
3929.35328.389
4028.81427.716
4128.43127.071
4227.91826.598
4327.46126.202
4427.00325.662
4526.41425.181
4625.96224.647
4725.52924.166
4825.11323.545
4924.70123.079
5024.30122.579
5123.89922.130
5223.39621.683
5323.02921.165
5422.71920.675
5522.36920.181
5621.99619.589
5721.59819.242
5821.25118.894
5920.92818.514
6020.52718.020
6120.17617.532
6219.76117.179
6319.41316.851
6419.03616.451
6518.71516.142
6618.37815.829
6718.05015.537
6817.56715.160
6917.20414.775
7016.90114.500
7116.56514.126
7216.22113.829
7315.89713.482
7415.46413.174
7515.12912.834
7614.71812.533
7714.28412.206
7813.94311.906
7913.53711.620
8013.18111.248
8112.81510.900
8212.50510.571
8312.18110.199
8411.7379.889
8511.2329.622
8610.8489.264
8710.4218.896
8810.1038.601
899.7208.249
909.1927.858
918.7417.495
928.2557.067
937.7026.613
947.0716.060
956.5295.664
965.9275.208
975.3834.538
984.3473.956
993.2883.267


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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