Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1072.52189.858
2060.30570.825
3051.82759.071
4044.32548.857
5038.45040.749
6032.81533.012
7027.88426.708
8022.09320.674
9015.51114.252

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1109.123140.459
297.242124.177
391.016117.810
487.057112.585
584.062108.719
681.005103.347
778.82199.571
876.08996.040
974.18292.512
1072.52189.858
1170.93687.651
1269.65685.210
1367.99483.353
1466.78881.487
1565.44279.431
1664.36677.794
1763.32875.877
1862.28773.919
1961.40272.190
2060.30570.825
2159.39569.503
2258.48968.029
2357.43366.996
2456.52865.488
2555.57164.541
2654.80763.725
2754.11262.481
2853.30061.491
2952.60560.339
3051.82759.071
3151.15357.909
3250.33856.727
3349.57955.794
3448.84654.873
3548.16553.609
3647.49852.598
3746.86251.589
3845.92450.647
3945.11049.874
4044.32548.857
4143.81547.875
4243.21447.147
4342.65446.534
4442.06845.692
4541.45944.936
4640.72844.090
4740.10943.323
4839.56642.322
4939.02041.566
5038.45040.749
5137.86540.008
5237.37239.268
5336.69438.404
5436.29937.578
5535.78036.742
5635.23335.731
5734.64535.135
5834.12334.533
5933.41933.875
6032.81533.012
6132.35632.154
6231.81131.530
6331.35030.948
6430.91630.236
6530.44329.682
6629.85429.119
6729.39628.593
6828.84127.910
6928.42527.211
7027.88426.708
7127.34526.024
7226.84625.477
7326.32324.838
7425.78724.268
7525.24023.639
7624.60723.078
7723.99322.469
7823.37821.908
7922.76521.373
8022.09320.674
8121.52920.019
8220.92619.398
8320.30118.696
8419.61818.110
8518.82217.604
8618.13516.924
8717.44816.226
8816.78415.665
8916.08614.995
9015.51114.252
9114.78713.561
9213.82712.749
9313.06511.885
9411.96210.837
9510.99910.088
9610.0619.226
978.9537.969
987.5466.883
995.4995.609


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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