Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1099.780109.997
2084.54087.052
3073.16273.728
4064.49962.493
5057.16553.640
6051.42245.065
7044.87537.811
8037.81030.430
9029.66521.729

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1146.782180.289
2135.439156.300
3127.694147.247
4121.450139.967
5115.270134.672
6111.948127.445
7108.166122.459
8105.080117.868
9102.131113.350
1099.780109.997
1197.170107.238
1295.719104.217
1394.199101.941
1492.77599.673
1591.35297.194
1689.68295.237
1788.24892.962
1887.23090.657
1985.71788.637
2084.54087.052
2183.08785.526
2281.73983.832
2380.49982.652
2479.12680.935
2578.13079.862
2676.98678.940
2776.14177.539
2875.14176.429
2974.19175.142
3073.16273.728
3172.03672.438
3271.14671.130
3370.47470.099
3469.59069.084
3568.59167.694
3667.78366.585
3766.77965.479
3866.01764.449
3965.39363.604
4064.49962.493
4163.67161.421
4262.87960.627
4362.27559.958
4461.67259.041
4560.71458.215
4660.04157.292
4759.21956.455
4858.54455.362
4957.83354.534
5057.16553.640
5156.58052.828
5256.14452.015
5355.57051.063
5455.04650.153
5554.53149.228
5653.95948.106
5753.29647.443
5852.72446.771
5952.15346.034
6051.42245.065
6150.52544.096
6249.85543.388
6349.21042.726
6448.67841.911
6548.13741.276
6647.55740.626
6746.82040.017
6846.12339.222
6945.47338.403
7044.87537.811
7144.22937.000
7243.49936.348
7342.73835.581
7442.10834.893
7541.58834.127
7640.87533.439
7740.19632.687
7839.46131.988
7938.58731.316
8037.81030.430
8137.15629.591
8236.51528.788
8335.63027.868
8434.92227.092
8534.10126.413
8633.29125.492
8732.31124.531
8831.51223.749
8930.60922.799
9029.66521.729
9128.67920.713
9227.74819.493
9326.56118.162
9425.30816.494
9523.97615.262
9622.36913.798
9721.02111.556
9818.8409.499
9915.2786.904


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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