Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge



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Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1054.13161.163
2042.72943.967
3035.25734.813
4029.38827.716
5024.83022.579
6020.98718.020
7017.28414.500
8013.48411.248
909.4507.858

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
196.970118.124
282.24998.521
375.92091.112
470.75785.168
566.69480.860
662.92175.014
760.78471.011
858.45767.354
956.37363.787
1054.13161.163
1152.88059.022
1251.51856.696
1350.41954.959
1448.99153.242
1547.82451.381
1646.79449.924
1745.83248.246
1844.78446.562
1943.68545.103
2042.72943.967
2141.96942.882
2241.27141.689
2340.64440.863
2439.83239.674
2539.04638.936
2638.29138.306
2737.64437.355
2836.91936.608
2936.05635.748
3035.25734.813
3134.69133.967
3234.19633.117
3333.71132.453
3433.12031.805
3532.40330.924
3631.84130.228
3731.17929.541
3830.49328.906
3929.96328.389
4029.38827.716
4129.02127.071
4228.50826.598
4328.02626.202
4427.55325.662
4526.99425.181
4626.51924.647
4726.07224.166
4825.63123.545
4925.25823.079
5024.83022.579
5124.38322.130
5223.90621.683
5323.52421.165
5423.21820.675
5522.84020.181
5622.47019.589
5722.04319.242
5821.73518.894
5921.36018.514
6020.98718.020
6120.64017.532
6220.24217.179
6319.85016.851
6419.44716.451
6519.14416.142
6618.76915.829
6718.41115.537
6817.95515.160
6917.61514.775
7017.28414.500
7116.94114.126
7216.61713.829
7316.25013.482
7415.84113.174
7515.46512.834
7615.06812.533
7714.62712.206
7814.26511.906
7913.86811.620
8013.48411.248
8113.11110.900
8212.81410.571
8312.45610.199
8412.0019.889
8511.5339.622
8611.1009.264
8710.6718.896
8810.3608.601
899.9468.249
909.4507.858
918.9647.495
928.4697.067
937.9016.613
947.2566.060
956.7255.664
966.1035.208
975.5394.538
984.4663.956
993.3803.267


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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