Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge



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Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10108.830106.816
2091.21586.864
3080.07274.309
4070.33463.131
5062.55353.975
6055.27844.903
7048.12737.180
8040.53429.422
9030.98120.657

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1160.664159.194
2148.716142.373
3136.540135.793
4128.842130.388
5124.544126.388
6120.460120.824
7116.578116.909
8113.490113.244
9111.080109.579
10108.830106.816
11106.922104.517
12104.917101.970
13102.567100.031
14100.86198.079
1599.20995.925
1697.52994.208
1796.01092.193
1894.00690.131
1992.72588.307
2091.21586.864
2190.01485.464
2288.75883.899
2387.41782.801
2486.23981.195
2585.27280.184
2684.01279.312
2783.03177.979
2882.14776.916
2981.03475.678
3080.07274.309
3179.07873.053
3278.17071.772
3377.05470.757
3475.87069.753
3574.73768.371
3673.64667.263
3772.72266.153
3871.99965.114
3971.09864.259
4070.33463.131
4169.54162.037
4268.92261.224
4367.97760.537
4467.08359.593
4566.45658.740
4665.71257.784
4764.83056.915
4864.03855.776
4963.28854.912
5062.55353.975
5161.82253.123
5261.01652.268
5360.28551.265
5459.40150.303
5558.67949.325
5657.97748.136
5757.31547.431
5856.53646.718
5955.91645.934
6055.27844.903
6154.44243.871
6253.65843.117
6353.00542.411
6452.32041.543
6551.74140.866
6650.98540.174
6750.36239.526
6849.61638.679
6948.83737.808
7048.12737.180
7147.27636.320
7246.60135.629
7345.82134.818
7445.05734.091
7544.32033.284
7643.62132.562
7742.92231.773
7842.14631.043
7941.45630.342
8040.53429.422
8139.77428.555
8238.77927.728
8338.06626.786
8437.10725.994
8536.10625.307
8635.32324.378
8734.18923.416
8833.30622.639
8932.10321.703
9030.98120.657
9129.60219.676
9228.47018.511
9327.26117.260
9425.80915.721
9523.67114.607
9621.83713.310
9719.73211.385
9817.7549.688
9914.0407.649


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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