Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge



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Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge ( Jan 2009 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.5299.990
206.1657.529
305.3526.249
404.7145.244
504.1934.496
603.7283.804
703.3053.244
802.8132.697
902.2552.081

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112.35820.362
210.81016.237
39.93814.855
49.26913.805
58.93513.074
68.50312.118
78.27711.485
87.97510.920
97.73110.380
107.5299.990
117.3289.675
127.1479.336
136.9719.086
146.8098.839
156.6658.574
166.5688.367
176.4658.130
186.3487.893
196.2457.688
206.1657.529
216.0847.377
225.9797.210
235.9147.095
245.8216.929
255.7316.826
265.6436.738
275.5666.605
285.4796.501
295.4196.380
305.3526.249
315.2896.131
325.2156.011
335.1485.918
345.0835.826
355.0205.702
364.9615.603
374.8905.505
384.8205.415
394.7715.341
404.7145.244
414.6475.152
424.5825.083
434.5445.026
444.4814.948
454.4404.878
464.3914.800
474.3444.730
484.2934.638
494.2404.570
504.1934.496
514.1394.429
524.0884.362
534.0454.285
544.0074.211
553.9724.136
563.9294.046
573.8813.993
583.8203.939
593.7723.881
603.7283.804
613.6873.728
623.6473.673
633.6033.621
643.5613.558
653.5183.509
663.4883.459
673.4393.412
683.4023.352
693.3503.289
703.3053.244
713.2583.183
723.2043.134
733.1623.077
743.1243.025
753.0802.968
763.0182.918
772.9692.862
782.9232.811
792.8612.762
802.8132.697
812.7702.636
822.7212.578
832.6582.512
842.6172.457
852.5462.409
862.4962.343
872.4272.276
882.3652.221
892.3132.155
902.2552.081
912.2012.011
922.1271.927
932.0651.837
941.9741.725
951.8831.643
961.7361.546
971.6161.401
981.5021.269
991.2711.105


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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