Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge



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Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.4089.990
205.2137.529
304.5286.249
403.9665.244
503.5324.496
603.1453.804
702.7703.244
802.3582.697
901.8692.081

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.60520.362
29.21316.237
38.46714.855
47.92713.805
57.57513.074
67.27812.118
76.99411.485
86.77010.920
96.57710.380
106.4089.990
116.2089.675
126.0669.336
135.9099.086
145.7848.839
155.6578.574
165.5518.367
175.4848.130
185.4017.893
195.3097.688
205.2137.529
215.1447.377
225.0717.210
234.9967.095
244.9376.929
254.8566.826
264.7626.738
274.7136.605
284.6586.501
294.5876.380
304.5286.249
314.4706.131
324.4146.011
334.3565.918
344.2945.826
354.2365.702
364.1905.603
374.1345.505
384.0805.415
394.0275.341
403.9665.244
413.9155.152
423.8775.083
433.8365.026
443.7914.948
453.7464.878
463.7004.800
473.6554.730
483.6154.638
493.5764.570
503.5324.496
513.4944.429
523.4454.362
533.4064.285
543.3744.211
553.3404.136
563.2974.046
573.2573.993
583.2203.939
593.1803.881
603.1453.804
613.1043.728
623.0603.673
633.0183.621
642.9903.558
652.9583.509
662.9193.459
672.8903.412
682.8563.352
692.8183.289
702.7703.244
712.7303.183
722.6913.134
732.6543.077
742.6153.025
752.5752.968
762.5292.918
772.4912.862
782.4472.811
792.3982.762
802.3582.697
812.3132.636
822.2662.578
832.2282.512
842.1812.457
852.1362.409
862.0922.343
872.0262.276
881.9662.221
891.9182.155
901.8692.081
911.8232.011
921.7661.927
931.7101.837
941.6431.725
951.5551.643
961.4511.546
971.3401.401
981.2201.269
991.0361.105


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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