Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge



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Exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge ( Jan 2011 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.5089.990
2018.7177.529
3016.2386.249
4014.3895.244
5012.8494.496
6011.5203.804
7010.1703.244
808.8072.697
907.1772.081

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.32320.362
231.99616.237
329.87314.855
427.74913.805
526.12013.074
625.22012.118
724.49711.485
823.55010.920
923.06710.380
1022.5089.990
1121.9709.675
1221.5529.336
1321.0539.086
1420.6658.839
1520.2868.574
1619.9008.367
1719.5988.130
1819.3297.893
1919.0077.688
2018.7177.529
2118.3867.377
2218.1407.210
2317.8917.095
2417.6126.929
2517.4336.826
2617.2046.738
2716.9896.605
2816.7666.501
2916.4996.380
3016.2386.249
3116.0406.131
3215.8726.011
3315.6635.918
3415.4935.826
3515.2895.702
3615.0725.603
3714.8965.505
3814.7015.415
3914.5265.341
4014.3895.244
4114.2515.152
4214.0615.083
4313.9345.026
4413.7884.948
4513.6204.878
4613.4254.800
4713.2744.730
4813.1184.638
4912.9854.570
5012.8494.496
5112.7144.429
5212.5834.362
5312.4414.285
5412.3214.211
5512.1864.136
5612.0524.046
5711.9273.993
5811.7803.939
5911.6433.881
6011.5203.804
6111.3723.728
6211.2163.673
6311.0883.621
6410.9693.558
6510.8423.509
6610.6893.459
6710.5643.412
6810.4393.352
6910.3143.289
7010.1703.244
7110.0163.183
729.8983.134
739.8063.077
749.6833.025
759.5202.968
769.3602.918
779.2412.862
789.1192.811
798.9512.762
808.8072.697
818.6502.636
828.4942.578
838.3432.512
848.2132.457
858.1002.409
867.9202.343
877.7082.276
887.5562.221
897.4012.155
907.1772.081
916.9732.011
926.7601.927
936.5371.837
946.2751.725
955.9541.643
965.7161.546
975.3711.401
984.9551.269
994.3801.105


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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