Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile25.86825.427
Median36.94040.465
Mean41.00747.270
75% Quartile51.84861.498
Interquartile Range25.97936.072

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1110.557155.458
298.561130.850
389.130121.921
483.848114.884
579.665109.847
676.862103.080
774.91298.485
872.60694.306
970.49290.241
1068.60787.253
1166.86684.815
1265.23882.164
1363.92580.180
1462.41978.215
1561.34876.079
1660.16674.402
1759.18372.463
1857.95870.509
1957.02268.806
2056.07567.475
2155.22566.198
2254.23064.786
2353.38463.805
2452.60162.384
2551.85261.499
2651.06660.739
2750.32859.588
2849.57158.679
2948.83857.627
3048.09056.476
3147.53955.428
3246.90854.368
3346.19653.536
3445.39352.717
3544.83451.599
3644.03650.709
3743.46049.824
3842.87749.002
3942.34448.328
4041.80347.444
4141.24546.593
4240.74645.964
4340.20845.434
4439.72244.709
4539.28144.058
4638.87243.330
4738.32142.672
4837.90841.813
4937.50841.165
5036.94040.465
5136.59839.830
5236.10439.195
5335.75138.454
5435.28037.745
5534.82137.027
5634.28336.156
5733.85235.642
5833.43935.122
5933.00134.552
6032.60633.804
6132.22233.057
6231.80832.512
6331.36932.002
6430.99131.376
6530.60530.888
6630.27930.390
6729.73329.923
6829.26329.314
6928.75728.687
7028.31528.235
7127.86727.616
7227.44127.118
7326.89826.533
7426.39726.009
7525.86825.426
7625.43424.903
7724.96524.331
7824.60523.801
7924.12923.290
8023.61222.619
8123.23221.983
8222.70121.375
8322.19720.679
8421.69420.092
8521.22019.579
8620.63318.884
8720.10818.159
8819.58517.569
8918.92416.853
9018.25816.047
9117.47415.283
9216.88214.364
9316.20113.364
9415.59112.111
9514.64611.186
9613.59010.086
9712.4618.404
9811.2166.861
998.9144.913


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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