Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.9412.969
Median4.0204.496
Mean4.4485.480
75% Quartile5.4896.826
Interquartile Range2.5483.857

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.91620.362
210.37016.237
39.50914.855
48.89913.805
58.55113.074
68.17112.118
77.92411.485
87.64710.920
97.41310.380
107.2049.990
117.0269.675
126.8439.336
136.6879.086
146.5338.839
156.3908.574
166.2848.367
176.1908.130
186.0917.893
195.9907.688
205.9107.529
215.8187.377
225.7267.210
235.6597.095
245.5766.929
255.4906.826
265.4026.738
275.3276.605
285.2536.501
295.1996.380
305.1196.249
315.0656.131
325.0016.011
334.9295.918
344.8705.826
354.8035.702
364.7405.603
374.6835.505
384.6255.415
394.5585.341
404.5125.244
414.4535.152
424.3855.083
434.3425.026
444.2964.948
454.2534.878
464.2054.800
474.1614.730
484.1064.638
494.0604.570
504.0204.496
513.9594.429
523.9144.362
533.8704.285
543.8364.211
553.7984.136
563.7524.046
573.7123.993
583.6583.939
593.6113.881
603.5713.804
613.5223.728
623.4853.673
633.4433.621
643.4013.558
653.3613.509
663.3293.459
673.2863.412
683.2543.352
693.2083.289
703.1583.244
713.1103.183
723.0573.134
733.0273.077
742.9833.025
752.9412.968
762.8852.918
772.8362.862
782.7902.811
792.7332.762
802.6822.697
812.6472.636
822.6012.578
832.5412.512
842.4992.457
852.4332.409
862.3792.343
872.3192.276
882.2572.221
892.2012.155
902.1482.081
912.0972.011
922.0301.927
931.9661.837
941.8811.725
951.7931.643
961.6531.546
971.5411.401
981.4291.269
991.2121.105


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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