Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile38.00725.427
Median53.02440.465
Mean57.95047.270
75% Quartile72.90061.498
Interquartile Range34.89236.072

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1148.571155.458
2131.067130.850
3121.138121.921
4114.010114.884
5109.637109.847
6106.287103.080
7103.35598.485
899.73494.306
997.79290.241
1094.90187.253
1192.47184.815
1290.28982.164
1388.48780.180
1486.69078.215
1585.03276.079
1683.48774.402
1782.18972.463
1880.57470.509
1979.48268.806
2078.17967.475
2177.21066.198
2275.95464.786
2374.78863.805
2473.91462.384
2572.91761.499
2671.78260.739
2770.80559.588
2869.75758.679
2968.80457.627
3067.92856.476
3166.93055.428
3265.90454.368
3364.90153.536
3464.14652.717
3563.30351.599
3662.65050.709
3761.82449.824
3861.06149.002
3960.12548.328
4059.29247.444
4158.55846.593
4257.97445.964
4357.24545.434
4456.61044.709
4555.92944.058
4655.25143.330
4754.74342.672
4854.07141.813
4953.57741.165
5053.02440.465
5152.39939.830
5251.69339.195
5351.17938.454
5450.53937.745
5549.90137.027
5649.26736.156
5748.69335.642
5848.10635.122
5947.49734.552
6046.78133.804
6146.17333.057
6245.70032.512
6345.02732.002
6444.42831.376
6543.90830.888
6643.13330.390
6742.55729.923
6842.05029.314
6941.44728.687
7040.83228.235
7140.23227.616
7239.55627.118
7339.09926.533
7438.56826.009
7537.98825.426
7637.38324.903
7736.64624.331
7835.97223.801
7935.39423.290
8034.82222.619
8134.31621.983
8233.56321.375
8332.80720.679
8432.27720.092
8531.46119.579
8630.78118.884
8730.09218.159
8829.14317.569
8928.30316.853
9027.23116.047
9126.19015.283
9225.31814.364
9324.47513.364
9423.61412.111
9522.35711.186
9621.12510.086
9719.3678.404
9817.4656.861
9914.8184.913


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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