Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.1444.502
Median6.1287.405
Mean7.1189.427
75% Quartile8.97211.941
Interquartile Range4.8287.439

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
122.31039.585
219.09130.996
317.48128.146
416.48625.990
515.22124.495
614.42022.546
713.88021.260
813.45520.116
913.01819.027
1012.53618.241
1112.16817.608
1211.84516.929
1311.54216.427
1411.19415.934
1510.92715.404
1610.69014.992
1710.47014.521
1810.23414.050
1910.01113.644
209.82813.329
219.61013.029
229.42412.699
239.23512.472
249.08812.144
258.97411.941
268.85211.768
278.70211.507
288.58711.302
298.43011.066
308.29810.809
318.15410.577
328.02810.343
337.89210.160
347.7629.982
357.6539.739
367.5389.547
377.4219.357
387.3329.181
397.1889.038
407.0968.850
416.9848.671
426.8828.539
436.7908.428
446.6978.277
456.5848.142
466.4957.991
476.3897.856
486.3057.680
496.2247.547
506.1287.405
516.0487.277
525.9797.149
535.8867.000
545.8006.858
555.7156.716
565.6216.543
575.5286.442
585.4496.340
595.3836.229
605.3196.083
615.2335.938
625.1415.833
635.0785.735
644.9825.615
654.9015.522
664.8195.427
674.7495.339
684.6835.224
694.6305.106
704.5685.022
714.4784.906
724.3884.814
734.3074.706
744.2124.609
754.1444.502
764.0534.407
773.9814.303
783.8984.207
793.8254.115
803.7513.994
813.6743.881
823.5843.773
833.4883.650
843.4063.547
853.3183.458
863.2243.337
873.1073.212
882.9933.110
892.9062.988
902.8252.852
912.6902.723
922.5832.570
932.4262.405
942.2972.201
952.1402.052
961.9861.877
971.8031.614
981.5491.378
991.2071.087


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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