Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge



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Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.8752.708
Median3.9694.136
Mean4.4475.083
75% Quartile5.5116.334
Interquartile Range2.6363.626

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112.40719.322
210.67015.336
39.85114.006
49.21812.996
58.75412.294
68.33511.377
78.01010.771
87.72610.231
97.4689.715
107.2589.342
117.0389.042
126.8538.719
136.7288.480
146.6068.246
156.4837.993
166.3667.796
176.2507.571
186.1447.346
196.0327.151
205.9277.000
215.8486.856
225.7776.698
235.6856.589
245.5956.432
255.5146.334
265.4336.251
275.3536.125
285.2686.026
295.1945.912
305.1385.788
315.0585.676
324.9955.563
334.9195.475
344.8565.389
354.7865.271
364.7265.178
374.6535.086
384.5865.000
394.5254.931
404.4744.840
414.4084.753
424.3484.689
434.2914.635
444.2374.561
454.2004.495
464.1604.422
474.1164.356
484.0674.270
494.0174.205
503.9694.136
513.9324.073
523.8904.011
533.8463.938
543.7913.869
553.7503.799
563.7073.714
573.6583.665
583.6113.614
593.5713.560
603.5233.488
613.4803.417
623.4433.365
633.4023.317
643.3623.258
653.3253.212
663.2823.165
673.2363.122
683.1913.065
693.1373.007
703.1022.965
713.0652.908
723.0212.862
732.9722.809
742.9222.761
752.8742.708
762.8192.660
772.7612.609
782.7152.561
792.6832.515
802.6312.456
812.5942.399
822.5472.345
832.4812.284
842.4282.233
852.3682.188
862.3182.127
872.2702.065
882.2162.014
892.1571.953
902.0891.884
912.0201.820
921.9411.743
931.8581.659
941.7741.556
951.6911.481
961.5881.392
971.4821.258
981.3551.137
991.1420.988


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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