Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge



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Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.874
Median6.295
Mean8.246
75% Quartile10.259
Interquartile Range6.385

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.835
228.267
325.474
423.381
521.940
620.075
718.854
817.774
916.751
1016.016
1115.427
1214.798
1314.334
1413.880
1513.394
1613.017
1712.587
1812.159
1911.790
2011.505
2111.235
2210.938
2310.734
2410.441
2510.259
2610.105
279.872
289.690
299.480
309.253
319.048
328.842
338.681
348.524
358.311
368.143
377.978
387.824
397.700
407.537
417.382
427.267
437.172
447.041
456.925
466.796
476.680
486.529
496.416
506.295
516.185
526.077
535.950
545.830
555.710
565.565
575.479
585.394
595.300
605.178
615.057
624.970
634.888
644.788
654.711
664.633
674.560
684.465
694.368
704.298
714.204
724.128
734.039
743.961
753.874
763.796
773.712
783.634
793.560
803.463
813.372
823.285
833.187
843.105
853.034
862.938
872.839
882.759
892.663
902.556
912.456
922.337
932.210
942.053
951.939
961.807
971.609
981.433
991.220


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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