Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge



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Probability distribution for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile30.59923.640
Median45.21340.749
Mean48.59947.234
75% Quartile63.92364.541
Interquartile Range33.32440.901

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1118.598140.459
2105.932124.177
3100.218117.810
496.283112.585
592.724108.719
690.182103.347
787.52899.571
885.00796.040
982.99192.512
1081.34289.858
1179.77787.651
1278.25085.210
1376.53583.353
1475.28381.487
1573.81279.431
1672.86177.794
1771.73375.877
1870.57473.919
1969.50372.190
2068.58170.825
2167.55169.503
2266.74368.029
2365.50066.996
2464.78065.488
2563.93664.541
2662.87163.725
2762.05962.481
2861.24161.491
2960.52860.339
3059.59059.071
3158.82857.909
3258.17156.727
3357.36655.794
3456.64254.873
3555.91553.609
3655.23752.598
3754.42751.589
3853.52150.647
3952.54849.874
4051.79648.857
4151.16947.875
4250.51147.147
4349.88546.534
4449.24045.692
4548.50844.936
4647.81944.090
4747.16543.323
4846.54442.322
4945.83041.566
5045.21340.749
5144.64240.008
5243.99639.268
5343.46238.404
5442.95637.578
5542.39336.742
5641.90135.731
5741.20435.135
5840.51534.533
5939.72833.875
6039.11533.012
6138.57732.154
6238.04031.530
6337.60530.948
6437.09330.236
6536.52529.682
6635.78629.119
6735.18328.593
6834.82327.910
6934.16627.211
7033.55626.708
7133.01826.024
7232.45825.477
7331.79424.838
7431.11724.268
7530.59723.639
7629.98723.078
7729.27922.469
7828.60121.908
7927.77321.373
8027.07020.674
8126.46820.019
8225.72719.398
8325.03818.696
8424.18818.110
8523.36117.604
8622.35116.924
8721.76716.226
8820.96815.665
8920.17314.995
9019.45414.252
9118.59613.561
9217.56012.749
9316.61111.885
9415.33710.837
9514.08510.088
9613.0319.226
9711.6657.969
989.8806.883
997.4985.609


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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