Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Oct16.8609.0270.7007.72933.512
Oct-Nov25.66813.8051.21513.67870.870
Oct-Dec30.80118.0591.38519.71988.655

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1032.45260.630
2025.59646.391
3021.27638.082
4018.21331.168
5015.59625.856
6013.16520.890
7011.05916.876
808.99613.009
906.5198.793

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
155.079101.688
248.53788.139
344.91082.908
441.85078.650
539.90375.524
637.97771.217
736.30568.218
834.81965.437
933.53062.684
1032.45260.630
1131.81758.933
1230.76757.070
1329.98755.662
1429.32854.255
1528.84252.716
1628.17251.498
1727.54550.080
1826.87548.642
1926.19347.381
2025.59646.391
2125.11945.438
2224.71444.380
2324.17743.642
2423.75142.571
2523.27541.901
2622.87341.326
2722.53940.453
2822.08139.761
2921.71538.960
3021.27638.082
3120.95537.281
3220.61936.471
3320.33335.834
3419.92835.207
3519.62034.351
3619.34733.669
3719.05032.991
3818.74832.360
3918.45531.844
4018.21331.168
4117.90030.517
4217.70130.036
4317.46229.632
4417.22229.078
4516.95128.582
4616.63528.028
4716.32427.527
4816.01226.876
4915.75226.385
5015.59625.856
5115.42825.377
5215.15524.899
5314.90524.342
5414.60823.812
5514.36123.275
5614.13122.627
5713.88022.246
5813.62621.861
5913.41321.440
6013.16520.890
6112.91320.343
6212.71619.945
6312.53719.575
6412.35519.121
6512.12918.769
6611.91818.410
6711.69418.076
6811.50417.641
6911.25717.195
7011.05916.876
7110.86116.439
7210.70116.090
7310.49315.682
7410.33015.318
7510.15414.915
769.92614.556
779.73214.165
789.45613.805
799.21313.460
808.99613.009
818.74012.586
828.52512.183
838.28711.726
848.01411.344
857.73411.013
867.48610.567
877.28210.106
887.0429.735
896.7909.289
906.5198.793
916.2868.328
925.9777.777
935.5767.187
945.1806.464
954.7425.940
964.2845.332
973.8674.429
983.3073.631
992.4522.671


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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