Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Aug22.79234.1371.84816.50036.799
Aug-Sep43.89247.9953.37830.391134.879
Aug-Oct60.75257.0224.07838.120182.915

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10106.432109.997
2089.25587.052
3077.54573.728
4069.01662.493
5061.77253.640
6055.36545.065
7048.75337.811
8041.35530.430
9032.73621.729

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1158.988180.289
2142.566156.300
3133.264147.247
4127.837139.967
5122.423134.672
6118.908127.445
7115.124122.459
8111.814117.868
9109.038113.350
10106.432109.997
11104.051107.238
12101.652104.217
1399.629101.941
1498.03799.673
1596.46497.194
1694.63795.237
1793.02092.962
1891.54090.657
1990.47288.637
2089.25587.052
2187.98485.526
2286.81083.832
2385.59182.652
2484.44080.935
2583.33379.862
2682.13478.940
2781.12077.539
2879.95076.429
2978.68675.142
3077.54573.728
3176.60172.438
3275.62571.130
3374.85070.099
3473.90769.084
3573.01367.694
3672.20466.585
3771.44765.479
3870.57564.449
3969.85563.604
4069.01662.493
4168.41061.421
4267.62360.627
4367.02359.958
4466.16659.041
4565.37758.215
4664.67857.292
4763.82556.455
4863.24255.362
4962.42054.534
5061.77253.640
5161.25452.828
5260.62752.015
5359.91351.063
5459.23650.153
5558.56349.228
5657.87648.106
5757.26147.443
5856.62746.771
5955.83746.034
6055.36545.065
6154.76644.096
6254.15443.388
6353.47542.726
6452.83441.911
6552.06141.276
6651.51640.626
6750.79940.017
6850.18539.222
6949.50838.403
7048.75337.811
7148.14037.000
7247.43536.348
7346.85835.581
7446.06734.893
7545.54334.127
7644.66433.439
7743.73032.687
7842.75331.988
7941.98631.316
8041.35530.430
8140.72229.591
8239.81628.788
8339.04127.868
8438.20427.092
8537.42826.413
8636.58625.492
8735.72024.531
8834.64123.749
8933.74422.799
9032.73621.729
9131.61720.713
9230.41119.493
9329.25318.162
9428.02516.494
9526.46715.262
9624.70913.798
9723.06411.556
9820.8449.499
9917.0926.904


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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