Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep21.09913.8581.52913.89198.081
Sep-Oct37.95922.8852.23021.620146.116
Sep-Nov46.76727.6632.74527.569168.133

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1063.45987.253
2051.58067.475
3044.41956.476
4038.53047.444
5034.01740.465
6029.92733.804
7025.99028.235
8021.47022.619
9016.69316.047

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1102.285155.458
291.036130.850
382.430121.921
477.632114.884
573.918109.847
671.005103.080
769.12198.485
867.41494.306
965.31490.241
1063.45987.253
1161.86184.815
1260.53782.164
1358.95080.180
1457.88978.215
1556.81076.079
1655.29174.402
1754.22072.463
1853.29970.509
1952.38268.806
2051.58067.475
2150.84966.198
2249.97564.786
2349.41263.805
2448.44962.384
2547.79361.499
2647.21860.739
2746.30959.588
2845.73358.679
2945.01657.627
3044.41956.476
3143.87055.428
3243.32054.368
3342.72653.536
3441.95252.717
3541.27051.599
3640.50450.709
3739.98549.824
3839.42949.002
3939.00748.328
4038.53047.444
4137.98046.593
4237.51745.964
4337.07245.434
4436.62444.709
4536.15444.058
4635.68543.330
4735.20042.672
4834.81141.813
4934.39041.165
5034.01740.465
5133.56239.830
5233.15139.195
5332.69738.454
5432.33437.745
5531.98137.027
5631.52436.156
5731.19635.642
5830.80635.122
5930.35734.552
6029.92733.804
6129.48133.057
6229.12732.512
6328.75332.002
6428.39831.376
6528.04330.888
6627.70330.390
6727.29529.923
6826.85329.314
6926.36928.687
7025.99028.235
7125.62327.616
7225.15227.118
7324.65926.533
7424.17426.009
7523.64425.426
7623.27224.903
7722.80624.331
7822.41023.801
7921.95623.290
8021.47022.619
8121.10221.983
8220.63521.375
8320.17920.679
8419.84320.092
8519.39319.579
8618.85418.884
8718.44218.159
8817.90317.569
8917.33516.853
9016.69316.047
9115.88315.283
9215.24714.364
9314.68513.364
9414.01612.111
9513.26711.186
9612.29610.086
9711.2298.404
9810.0256.861
998.0154.913


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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