Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Oct17.1469.6986.9990.7007.73433.512
Oct-Nov26.09816.20510.8441.21513.64470.870
Oct-Dec31.28321.19613.7041.38519.45388.655

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1040.06360.630
2032.12146.391
3027.10638.082
4023.19331.168
5020.08425.856
6017.31920.890
7014.54416.876
8011.83413.009
908.7988.793

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
165.221101.688
257.44588.139
353.95582.908
450.10778.650
547.74075.524
645.88871.217
744.52968.218
842.90665.437
941.27662.684
1040.06360.630
1139.12258.933
1238.23157.070
1337.44155.662
1436.52854.255
1535.62552.716
1634.71751.498
1733.96750.080
1833.23548.642
1932.57647.381
2032.12146.391
2131.65045.438
2231.17944.380
2330.50443.642
2429.87842.571
2529.43441.901
2628.95441.326
2728.39140.453
2827.91239.761
2927.50638.960
3027.10638.082
3126.57937.281
3226.12036.471
3325.77035.834
3425.37735.207
3525.04734.351
3624.67633.669
3724.27032.991
3823.85732.360
3923.59631.844
4023.19331.168
4122.89330.517
4222.49730.036
4322.16829.632
4421.90229.078
4521.53428.582
4621.21628.028
4720.94627.527
4820.60826.876
4920.31026.385
5020.08425.856
5119.70725.377
5219.44924.899
5319.17324.342
5418.92223.812
5518.63923.275
5618.31622.627
5718.06122.246
5817.79821.861
5917.63221.440
6017.31920.890
6117.05320.343
6216.73919.945
6316.39719.575
6416.16819.121
6515.90118.769
6615.56118.410
6715.30918.076
6815.05917.641
6914.78817.195
7014.54416.876
7114.27816.439
7214.02716.090
7313.70515.682
7413.45115.318
7513.19514.915
7612.91614.556
7712.68814.165
7812.38113.805
7912.08713.460
8011.83413.009
8111.46912.586
8211.20712.183
8310.85111.726
8410.55011.344
8510.29011.013
8610.02710.567
879.74510.106
889.4339.735
899.1019.289
908.7988.793
918.4068.328
928.0217.777
937.5327.187
947.0226.464
956.5825.940
966.0845.332
975.4654.429
984.6183.631
993.7722.671


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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