Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Nov8.9536.5073.8450.5155.90937.358
Nov-Dec14.13811.4986.7050.68411.71855.143
Nov-Jan16.86914.4867.9680.98514.08560.838

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.09832.408
2014.66223.850
3012.40119.372
4010.76815.857
509.38713.247
608.21910.848
707.1448.917
805.9697.043
904.5494.954

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
130.53266.116
226.35753.293
323.98348.811
422.75345.349
521.61142.910
620.58539.689
719.81537.537
819.31635.607
918.71033.754
1018.09832.408
1117.63631.320
1217.19430.147
1316.70129.276
1416.29828.420
1516.02427.496
1615.69826.776
1715.38125.949
1815.12025.122
1914.87724.406
2014.66223.850
2114.42723.320
2214.19422.736
2313.95622.333
2413.70321.752
2513.49821.391
2613.27221.083
2713.03820.618
2812.87720.252
2912.62219.831
3012.40119.372
3112.22218.957
3212.06518.539
3311.91318.211
3411.72817.891
3511.54017.455
3611.37017.110
3711.20716.769
3811.06016.452
3910.92616.194
4010.76815.857
4110.62015.533
4210.46115.295
4310.32915.096
4410.17514.823
4510.03214.579
469.88514.307
479.77714.062
489.64113.744
499.51313.504
509.38713.247
519.26913.014
529.15012.783
539.01812.513
548.89912.256
558.80011.997
568.65011.685
578.56311.501
588.46811.316
598.33811.113
608.21910.848
618.10010.585
627.98510.394
637.88710.216
647.7759.998
657.6689.828
667.5669.656
677.4709.495
687.3649.286
697.2559.071
707.1448.917
717.0398.707
726.9278.538
736.8108.341
746.7068.165
756.5627.970
766.4477.796
776.3187.606
786.1887.431
796.0847.263
805.9697.043
815.8146.836
825.6856.639
835.5756.414
845.4526.226
855.3236.062
865.1815.841
875.0345.612
884.8515.427
894.7155.204
904.5494.954
914.3844.719
924.2484.439
934.0574.137
943.8363.763
953.5673.490
963.3733.170
973.0732.687
982.7342.254
992.2491.721


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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