Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Feb1.8262.7521.0400.5082.9014.062
Feb-Mar3.43411.3722.8270.8955.1547.625
Feb-Apr6.00314.7474.5151.5777.11549.217

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.8089.342
204.7527.000
304.0915.788
403.5564.840
503.1624.136
602.7893.488
702.4592.965
802.0732.456
901.6291.884

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.06019.322
28.73615.336
37.91614.006
47.44312.996
57.03012.294
66.71711.377
76.43810.771
86.20610.231
96.0219.715
105.8089.342
115.6259.042
125.4858.719
135.3778.480
145.2898.246
155.2067.993
165.0967.796
174.9897.571
184.9077.346
194.8237.151
204.7527.000
214.6756.856
224.6056.698
234.5496.589
244.4696.432
254.3966.334
264.3436.251
274.2746.125
284.2176.026
294.1485.912
304.0915.788
314.0365.676
323.9875.563
333.9285.475
343.8655.389
353.8175.271
363.7615.178
373.7065.086
383.6615.000
393.6034.931
403.5564.840
413.5064.753
423.4704.689
433.4214.635
443.3774.561
453.3324.495
463.2994.422
473.2694.356
483.2394.270
493.2014.205
503.1624.136
513.1244.073
523.0814.011
533.0453.938
543.0043.869
552.9663.799
562.9333.714
572.9003.665
582.8633.614
592.8253.560
602.7893.488
612.7623.417
622.7253.365
632.6943.317
642.6613.258
652.6313.212
662.5963.165
672.5563.122
682.5223.065
692.4823.007
702.4592.965
712.4272.908
722.3832.862
732.3462.809
742.3022.761
752.2632.708
762.2182.660
772.1792.609
782.1442.561
792.1112.515
802.0732.456
812.0362.399
821.9932.345
831.9482.284
841.8982.233
851.8562.188
861.8152.127
871.7732.065
881.7352.014
891.6911.953
901.6291.884
911.5831.820
921.5151.743
931.4511.659
941.3831.556
951.3131.481
961.2291.392
971.1351.258
981.0351.137
990.8600.988


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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