Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr2.5693.3751.6880.6831.96141.592
Apr-May7.6377.7203.9131.6044.71177.165
Apr-Jun16.77218.4247.9693.54310.273112.863

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.071
2021.823
3017.291
4013.890
5011.458
609.301
707.624
806.052
904.376

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
175.616
256.996
351.003
446.541
543.483
639.547
736.983
834.725
932.595
1031.071
1129.852
1228.553
1327.597
1426.665
1525.669
1624.898
1724.020
1823.148
1922.400
2021.823
2121.274
2220.675
2320.263
2419.672
2519.307
2618.997
2718.530
2818.165
2917.746
3017.291
3116.882
3216.472
3316.152
3415.841
3515.419
3615.086
3714.758
3814.456
3914.210
4013.890
4113.584
4213.359
4313.172
4412.916
4512.688
4612.436
4712.208
4811.915
4911.694
5011.458
5111.246
5211.035
5310.790
5410.558
5510.325
5610.045
579.880
589.715
599.536
609.301
619.070
628.902
638.746
648.556
658.408
668.259
678.120
687.940
697.755
707.624
717.444
727.301
737.134
746.986
756.822
766.676
776.518
786.373
796.234
806.052
815.882
825.721
835.539
845.386
855.255
865.077
874.895
884.748
894.572
904.376
914.193
923.977
933.746
943.463
953.258
963.021
972.669
982.359
991.986


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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