Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Jul16.27823.8037.8381.72411.54315.844
Jul-Aug38.89040.92441.9753.57227.14852.642
Jul-Sep60.10455.15455.8335.10141.934150.723

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1087.336106.816
2072.39386.864
3062.65774.309
4054.25663.131
5047.93353.975
6041.56144.903
7035.66937.180
8029.70529.422
9021.84920.657

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1134.145159.194
2120.989142.373
3111.834135.793
4106.133130.388
5100.801126.388
697.766120.824
795.275116.909
891.909113.244
989.720109.579
1087.336106.816
1185.486104.517
1283.917101.970
1382.183100.031
1480.65498.079
1579.31395.925
1677.91694.208
1776.40992.193
1874.72790.131
1973.51988.307
2072.39386.864
2171.46685.464
2270.36883.899
2369.02782.801
2467.91781.195
2566.87080.184
2666.07079.312
2765.12177.979
2864.22376.916
2963.44275.678
3062.65774.309
3161.79973.053
3260.81471.772
3359.89570.757
3459.04269.753
3558.10068.371
3657.20867.263
3756.39566.153
3855.62965.114
3954.91264.259
4054.25663.131
4153.63462.037
4252.86261.224
4352.13560.537
4451.36859.593
4550.83558.740
4650.16357.784
4749.56856.915
4848.99055.776
4948.43954.912
5047.93353.975
5147.38953.123
5246.69552.268
5346.00551.265
5445.44550.303
5544.66749.325
5643.88648.136
5743.27547.431
5842.71946.718
5942.10345.934
6041.56144.903
6140.98043.871
6240.32143.117
6339.81642.411
6439.22841.543
6538.77440.866
6638.15340.174
6737.61839.526
6837.06038.679
6936.47037.808
7035.66937.180
7135.22236.320
7234.72535.629
7334.13434.818
7433.54834.091
7532.99333.284
7632.41432.562
7731.69231.773
7831.01931.043
7930.40230.342
8029.70529.422
8128.94828.555
8228.38427.728
8327.71126.786
8427.07325.994
8526.13525.307
8625.49124.378
8724.55723.416
8823.76022.639
8922.67321.703
9021.84920.657
9120.88319.676
9220.01418.511
9318.85817.260
9417.76315.721
9516.35714.607
9614.55013.310
9713.11211.385
9811.4309.688
998.7147.649


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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