Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Oct16.9856.9999.0270.7008.01433.512
Oct-Nov25.85610.84413.8051.21514.08970.870
Oct-Dec31.00413.70418.0591.38520.03888.655

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1046.38760.630
2037.49146.391
3031.76638.082
4027.40731.168
5023.72425.856
6020.61320.890
7017.53616.876
8014.29213.009
9010.7908.793

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
173.677101.688
264.76888.139
360.32882.908
457.39378.650
554.50075.524
652.35771.217
750.11168.218
848.60865.437
947.29962.684
1046.38760.630
1145.23758.933
1243.91657.070
1342.98955.662
1442.20754.255
1541.16752.716
1640.34951.498
1739.65250.080
1838.73048.642
1938.05447.381
2037.49146.391
2136.85145.438
2236.23544.380
2335.56543.642
2435.07142.571
2534.47441.901
2633.90641.326
2733.35440.453
2832.76539.761
2932.25438.960
3031.76638.082
3131.19637.281
3230.68536.471
3330.19035.834
3429.76635.207
3529.31634.351
3628.95333.669
3728.62732.991
3828.27132.360
3927.82031.844
4027.40731.168
4127.00530.517
4226.63730.036
4326.28429.632
4425.87229.078
4525.46228.582
4625.07828.028
4724.73127.527
4824.41226.876
4923.99826.385
5023.72425.856
5123.43125.377
5223.10824.899
5322.81924.342
5422.52423.812
5522.12823.275
5621.90322.627
5721.57822.246
5821.20921.861
5920.93821.440
6020.61320.890
6120.28820.343
6219.98119.945
6319.64719.575
6419.26419.121
6518.95418.769
6618.64018.410
6718.37718.076
6818.09317.641
6917.78917.195
7017.53616.876
7117.17616.439
7216.94716.090
7316.65915.682
7416.32715.318
7515.98014.915
7615.59514.556
7715.28714.165
7815.00413.805
7914.66613.460
8014.29213.009
8113.96812.586
8213.61812.183
8313.31711.726
8412.99211.344
8512.60311.013
8612.20410.567
8711.86010.106
8811.5519.735
8911.2049.289
9010.7908.793
9110.4028.328
929.9837.777
939.3827.187
948.7836.464
958.1475.940
967.6385.332
976.8384.429
985.9653.631
994.9362.671


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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