Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


Return to catchment list
Product list for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan2.7021.2631.8830.4122.4099.838
Jan-Feb4.5152.3022.8000.5145.37427.024
Jan-Mar6.1264.0904.0411.0447.76133.627

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.7869.990
207.1987.529
306.2736.249
405.5315.244
504.9164.496
604.3893.804
703.8913.244
803.3332.697
902.6852.081

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.43120.362
212.60516.237
311.61114.855
410.77813.805
510.37013.074
69.96012.118
79.64911.485
89.28810.920
99.05210.380
108.7869.990
118.5599.675
128.3769.336
138.1639.086
147.9708.839
157.7978.574
167.6788.367
177.5518.130
187.4247.893
197.3147.688
207.1987.529
217.1177.377
227.0187.210
236.9247.095
246.8206.929
256.7066.826
266.6126.738
276.5126.605
286.4386.501
296.3346.380
306.2736.249
316.1836.131
326.1126.011
336.0375.918
345.9625.826
355.8985.702
365.8225.603
375.7445.505
385.6715.415
395.5975.341
405.5315.244
415.4725.152
425.4135.083
435.3345.026
445.2714.948
455.2034.878
465.1544.800
475.0984.730
485.0404.638
494.9784.570
504.9164.496
514.8584.429
524.8164.362
534.7544.285
544.7104.211
554.6714.136
564.6214.046
574.5613.993
584.4963.939
594.4423.881
604.3893.804
614.3363.728
624.2823.673
634.2373.621
644.1963.558
654.1483.509
664.1113.459
674.0623.412
683.9983.352
693.9453.289
703.8913.244
713.8373.183
723.7803.134
733.7353.077
743.6813.025
753.6352.968
763.5752.918
773.5052.862
783.4472.811
793.3872.762
803.3332.697
813.2732.636
823.2102.578
833.1382.512
843.0852.457
853.0232.409
862.9482.343
872.8812.276
882.8172.221
892.7432.155
902.6852.081
912.6062.011
922.5281.927
932.4461.837
942.3571.725
952.2221.643
962.0851.546
971.9261.401
981.7921.269
991.5331.105


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence