Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan2.7209.8382.9890.4122.2209.838
Jan-Feb4.53127.0245.7410.5144.94727.024
Jan-Mar6.02633.62714.3611.0446.41133.627

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.5139.990
207.8217.529
306.8156.249
406.0175.244
505.3534.496
604.7763.804
704.2413.244
803.6372.697
902.9322.081

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.73020.362
213.70116.237
312.53714.855
411.72713.805
511.21513.074
610.80312.118
710.43011.485
810.10710.920
99.77610.380
109.5139.990
119.2989.675
129.1069.336
138.8489.086
148.6588.839
158.4888.574
168.3368.367
178.1808.130
188.0617.893
197.9427.688
207.8217.529
217.7327.377
227.6267.210
237.5157.095
247.4046.929
257.2936.826
267.1836.738
277.0736.605
286.9856.501
296.8976.380
306.8156.249
316.7156.131
326.6426.011
336.5625.918
346.4925.826
356.4055.702
366.3255.603
376.2495.505
386.1765.415
396.0935.341
406.0175.244
415.9575.152
425.8805.083
435.8075.026
445.7364.948
455.6714.878
465.6114.800
475.5424.730
485.4774.638
495.4124.570
505.3534.496
515.2934.429
525.2364.362
535.1784.285
545.1354.211
555.0754.136
565.0184.046
574.9673.993
584.9013.939
594.8303.881
604.7763.804
614.7243.728
624.6643.673
634.6083.621
644.5713.558
654.5163.509
664.4753.459
674.4173.412
684.3633.352
694.2993.289
704.2413.244
714.1793.183
724.1203.134
734.0763.077
744.0243.025
753.9652.968
763.8922.918
773.8242.862
783.7542.811
793.7042.762
803.6372.697
813.5712.636
823.4992.578
833.4222.512
843.3652.457
853.3012.409
863.2202.343
873.1502.276
883.0752.221
893.0112.155
902.9322.081
912.8432.011
922.7611.927
932.6771.837
942.5881.725
952.4381.643
962.2961.546
972.1171.401
981.9631.269
991.6971.105


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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