Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1076.281
2053.780
3042.673
4034.333
5028.351
6023.024
7018.910
8015.029
9010.884

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1181.017
2138.217
3124.029
4113.508
5106.002
696.728
790.594
885.114
979.968
1076.281
1173.336
1270.205
1367.880
1465.587
1563.159
1661.301
1759.137
1856.997
1955.178
2053.780
2152.446
2250.932
2349.975
2448.514
2547.635
2646.878
2745.707
2844.795
2943.801
3042.673
3141.681
3240.650
3339.867
3439.137
3538.077
3637.278
3736.465
3835.732
3935.120
4034.333
4133.577
4233.034
4332.563
4431.940
4531.383
4630.749
4730.206
4829.482
4928.929
5028.351
5127.829
5227.320
5326.698
5426.146
5525.539
5624.874
5724.469
5824.055
5923.620
6023.024
6122.467
6222.057
6321.669
6421.210
6520.847
6620.478
6720.135
6819.690
6919.236
7018.910
7118.468
7218.115
7317.702
7417.336
7516.931
7616.571
7716.180
7815.820
7915.477
8015.029
8114.609
8214.211
8313.760
8413.383
8513.057
8612.618
8712.167
8811.804
8911.368
9010.884
9110.431
929.895
939.322
948.621
958.114
967.525
976.653
985.883
994.957


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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