Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10138.501152.560
20110.345120.833
3094.065101.606
4079.92185.024
5068.94171.818
6058.81159.027
7049.10248.314
8039.66637.630
9028.09625.501

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1220.658240.204
2194.837211.603
3180.355200.505
4168.336191.438
5162.238184.759
6157.806175.518
7152.297169.054
8146.810163.035
9142.425157.048
10138.501152.560
11134.787148.840
12131.509144.737
13127.611141.625
14125.084138.507
15122.476135.079
16119.362132.357
17117.024129.177
18114.920125.936
19112.464123.082
20110.345120.833
21108.307118.659
22106.913116.237
23104.755114.544
24103.516112.074
25101.817110.526
26100.522109.192
2798.767107.160
2897.134105.547
2995.744103.671
3094.065101.606
3192.55799.716
3291.04097.796
3389.27296.280
3487.85594.785
3586.38592.733
3684.86291.093
3783.50689.455
3882.18287.928
3980.97786.673
4079.92185.024
4178.84583.428
4277.81982.246
4376.66981.250
4475.75079.882
4574.45678.651
4673.16877.273
4772.21876.022
4871.06174.390
4970.11573.154
5068.94171.818
5167.97170.604
5267.01269.390
5366.02367.968
5464.90566.609
5564.12865.229
5663.17563.555
5761.90762.566
5860.79861.566
5959.86260.468
6058.81159.027
6157.79557.588
6257.02756.538
6356.12955.556
6455.04754.351
6554.16753.412
6653.27052.452
6752.37151.555
6851.39150.385
6950.11249.181
7049.10248.314
7148.23147.127
7247.21146.175
7346.33445.057
7445.43044.056
7544.59842.945
7643.47041.951
7742.58640.866
7841.70339.861
7940.79738.897
8039.66637.630
8138.60136.436
8237.40135.296
8336.24133.998
8435.03032.906
8533.77931.956
8632.71730.671
8731.51429.339
8830.54728.261
8929.23926.959
9028.09625.501
9126.51124.129
9224.92422.494
9323.25720.730
9421.55318.547
9520.27116.955
9618.34615.090
9716.26112.291
9813.9399.787
9910.3396.724


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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