Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.13944.528
2030.38433.849
3025.85428.140
4022.09423.561
5019.04220.085
6016.53216.815
7013.96514.115
8011.36911.424
908.3678.314

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
163.39686.856
256.24070.421
351.20464.812
447.80560.510
545.50857.492
643.57653.515
741.65250.862
840.55648.480
939.19746.193
1038.13944.528
1137.33743.180
1236.25041.725
1335.13540.644
1434.23539.577
1533.43838.425
1632.84237.525
1732.23736.489
1831.53635.451
1930.92734.550
2030.38433.849
2129.82533.178
2229.32832.439
2328.68731.927
2428.18431.188
2527.73830.728
2627.48430.335
2727.01929.740
2826.63229.271
2926.25928.731
3025.85428.140
3125.48127.604
3225.13827.063
3324.69626.639
3424.31826.223
3523.93625.656
3623.52525.206
3723.18324.759
3822.76424.344
3922.44024.005
4022.09423.561
4121.79223.134
4221.41822.819
4321.13922.555
4420.72622.193
4520.47321.868
4620.17321.506
4719.93521.179
4819.68620.753
4919.37420.431
5019.04220.085
5118.73919.771
5218.46519.458
5318.29819.093
5418.01518.744
5517.73018.391
5617.48017.965
5717.23817.713
5817.00717.459
5916.81517.180
6016.53216.815
6116.23516.451
6215.98316.186
6315.74615.938
6415.54215.634
6515.28715.398
6615.02015.156
6714.79314.931
6814.49814.636
6914.22214.333
7013.96514.115
7113.73513.817
7213.47213.578
7313.22913.297
7412.98913.045
7512.72112.765
7612.45312.515
7712.18212.241
7811.87311.988
7911.71111.744
8011.36911.424
8111.02111.121
8210.71510.832
8310.46510.501
8410.09010.223
859.8619.980
869.5319.651
879.2199.309
888.9289.030
898.6338.693
908.3678.314
917.9777.955
927.6437.525
937.1657.057
946.7046.472
956.2106.042
965.4955.531
974.8594.753
983.9394.042
992.6963.149


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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