Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10283.407301.510
20249.468261.328
30225.148234.862
40204.075209.956
50183.507188.084
60164.474164.397
70144.704141.851
80120.392115.838
9083.62380.226

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1375.476402.693
2346.101370.524
3333.280357.885
4321.157347.471
5312.843339.740
6305.355328.948
7300.086321.323
8294.575314.156
9288.680306.958
10283.407301.510
11279.228296.959
12274.850291.898
13271.369288.028
14268.870284.121
15265.239279.790
16261.794276.322
17257.686272.238
18254.709268.035
19252.007264.298
20249.468261.328
21246.559258.435
22244.035255.187
23241.312252.897
24239.049249.530
25236.790247.403
26234.408245.559
27232.182242.730
28229.845240.465
29228.007237.811
30225.148234.862
31222.650232.137
32220.554229.342
33218.270227.114
34216.476224.900
35214.573221.831
36212.882219.351
37210.606216.851
38208.157214.497
39206.024212.546
40204.075209.956
41201.643207.424
42200.054205.531
43197.752203.923
44195.834201.695
45193.973199.672
46191.807197.386
47190.097195.290
48187.956192.521
49185.644190.401
50183.507188.084
51181.742185.957
52179.880183.805
53178.008181.257
54176.157178.788
55174.691176.249
56172.539173.124
57170.643171.252
58168.359169.341
59166.137167.220
60164.474164.397
61162.779161.533
62160.964159.413
63158.979157.409
64156.552154.916
65154.943152.949
66152.772150.914
67151.150148.990
68149.222146.447
69147.161143.791
70144.704141.851
71142.471139.158
72140.248136.966
73138.215134.353
74135.995131.979
75133.174129.301
76130.248126.867
77127.813124.167
78125.361121.626
79122.816119.150
80120.392115.838
81117.052112.651
82113.660109.550
83110.505105.942
84107.448102.846
85104.418100.104
86100.67396.322
8797.13692.311
8892.69988.995
8987.59884.910
9083.62380.226
9178.94075.716
9274.09870.219
9368.07964.156
9462.25756.510
9555.01250.882
9646.46444.305
9735.22034.707
9823.23926.711
993.75818.145


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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