Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys



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Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1032.579
2023.500
3018.950
4015.476
5012.954
6010.682
708.888
807.180
905.320

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
174.145
257.090
351.516
447.335
544.452
640.719
738.272
836.106
934.054
1032.579
1131.396
1230.130
1329.197
1428.284
1527.306
1626.547
1725.680
1824.817
1924.074
2023.500
2122.954
2222.356
2321.943
2421.351
2520.985
2620.672
2720.202
2819.834
2919.410
3018.950
3118.535
3218.119
3317.793
3417.476
3517.045
3616.705
3716.369
3816.058
3915.806
4015.476
4115.161
4214.929
4314.735
4414.471
4514.235
4613.972
4713.736
4813.430
4913.200
5012.954
5112.732
5212.511
5312.254
5412.010
5511.765
5611.469
5711.296
5811.121
5910.931
6010.682
6110.436
6210.257
6310.091
649.888
659.731
669.570
679.421
689.228
699.030
708.888
718.694
728.540
738.359
748.198
758.020
767.862
777.689
787.531
797.379
807.180
816.993
826.816
836.615
846.447
856.301
866.104
875.901
885.737
895.540
905.320
915.114
924.870
934.608
944.285
954.050
963.777
973.368
983.005
992.563


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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