Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


Return to catchment list
Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys ( Jan 2009 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.84123.372
2019.00818.150
3016.87415.308
4014.87912.997
5013.39611.221
6011.9859.529
7010.6748.115
809.1876.687
907.3015.010

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.08043.258
231.54935.659
329.22633.033
427.52131.008
526.24829.580
625.41327.689
724.70926.420
824.01525.278
923.38824.176
1022.84123.372
1122.40522.719
1221.96222.012
1321.47121.485
1421.11120.965
1520.83720.402
1620.42119.960
1719.94719.452
1819.63318.941
1919.26418.496
2019.00818.150
2118.77717.818
2218.54617.452
2318.35117.198
2418.15016.830
2517.89916.601
2617.69016.405
2717.50416.109
2817.27215.875
2917.09815.604
3016.87415.308
3116.62715.039
3216.46014.767
3316.25114.554
3416.06814.344
3515.88714.058
3615.64613.831
3715.45713.605
3815.23913.394
3915.07613.222
4014.87912.997
4114.73512.780
4214.60712.620
4314.45912.485
4414.33912.300
4514.15612.134
4614.02211.949
4713.85411.782
4813.69811.563
4913.54311.399
5013.39611.221
5113.26411.059
5213.10410.898
5313.01310.710
5412.86610.530
5512.72610.347
5612.59210.126
5712.4499.996
5812.2849.864
5912.1529.719
6011.9859.529
6111.8799.340
6211.7309.201
6311.6179.072
6411.4768.913
6511.3588.789
6611.2358.662
6711.0958.544
6810.9578.389
6910.7858.230
7010.6748.115
7110.5337.958
7210.3757.832
7310.2467.683
7410.0857.550
759.9407.401
769.7777.269
779.6397.123
789.5146.988
799.3576.858
809.1876.687
819.0396.525
828.8686.370
838.6786.193
848.5216.043
858.3135.913
868.1465.735
877.9415.550
887.7405.399
897.5125.216
907.3015.010
917.0734.814
926.7924.578
936.5364.321
946.3003.999
956.0413.761
965.6273.477
975.1133.042
984.6452.641
993.8722.133


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence