Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Probability distribution for Goulburn River at Dohertys( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile122.530
Median181.741
Mean184.213
75% Quartile241.626
Interquartile Range119.096

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1398.442
2365.957
3353.193
4342.677
5334.870
6323.972
7316.272
8309.035
9301.766
10296.265
11291.669
12286.558
13282.650
14278.705
15274.332
16270.830
17266.705
18262.461
19258.688
20255.689
21252.768
22249.487
23247.175
24243.776
25241.627
26239.766
27236.910
28234.623
29231.942
30228.965
31226.213
32223.391
33221.142
34218.906
35215.808
36213.304
37210.780
38208.403
39206.433
40203.818
41201.263
42199.351
43197.728
44195.479
45193.437
46191.129
47189.013
48186.219
49184.079
50181.741
51179.594
52177.423
53174.852
54172.361
55169.800
56166.648
57164.760
58162.832
59160.693
60157.846
61154.960
62152.823
63150.803
64148.291
65146.309
66144.260
67142.323
68139.762
69137.089
70135.137
71132.428
72130.225
73127.599
74125.214
75122.526
76120.084
77117.376
78114.831
79112.352
80109.039
81105.855
82102.761
8399.167
8496.089
8593.367
8689.621
8785.660
8882.395
8978.385
9073.811
9169.431
9264.128
9358.332
9451.111
9545.867
9639.818
9731.141
9824.028
9916.477


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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