Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Probability distribution for Goulburn River at Dohertys(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile96.93290.748
Median142.554144.011
Mean142.840148.695
75% Quartile188.173199.667
Interquartile Range91.241108.919

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1302.284346.330
2283.783315.935
3270.509303.992
4261.359294.154
5253.129286.849
6247.022276.653
7241.522269.449
8236.050262.680
9231.595255.880
10227.679250.735
11224.138246.437
12221.244241.656
13218.002238.002
14214.901234.313
15212.613230.224
16209.491226.951
17206.414223.095
18204.024219.129
19201.593215.603
20198.953212.800
21197.137210.071
22194.609207.007
23192.212204.848
24190.053201.674
25188.186199.668
26186.142197.930
27184.117195.265
28181.971193.131
29180.114190.631
30178.353187.854
31176.782185.288
32174.567182.658
33172.572180.562
34170.744178.481
35168.613175.595
36166.943173.265
37165.395170.917
38163.378168.707
39161.872166.876
40159.923164.448
41157.945162.075
42156.127160.301
43154.178158.796
44152.453156.712
45150.748154.820
46148.867152.683
47146.910150.726
48145.519148.144
49144.132146.168
50142.554144.011
51140.741142.033
52138.933140.033
53136.995137.669
54135.748135.382
55134.138133.034
56132.737130.149
57130.689128.423
58129.021126.665
59127.396124.716
60125.788122.128
61123.982119.510
62122.246117.577
63120.502115.753
64118.490113.490
65117.050111.710
66115.215109.873
67113.080108.142
68111.350105.860
69109.633103.486
70107.733101.759
71105.61499.372
72103.65597.438
73101.21695.143
7499.30593.069
7596.92790.744
7694.57388.643
7791.87686.328
7889.60384.165
7986.83882.073
8085.15179.299
8182.78476.658
8279.55574.117
8376.85171.198
8474.41168.727
8571.74066.566
8668.63863.629
8765.92160.571
8862.00558.089
8959.72755.091
9055.32851.737
9149.99248.593
9246.13544.873
9340.60640.912
9436.06736.119
9529.49532.721
9621.31128.870
9711.85323.412
984.47618.914
990.00013.980


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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