Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys



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Probability distribution for Goulburn River at Dohertys ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile40.296
Median73.409
Mean86.339
75% Quartile120.046
Interquartile Range79.750

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1265.614
2234.668
3222.546
4212.585
5205.207
6194.940
7187.712
8180.944
9174.174
10169.072
11164.826
12160.123
13156.541
14152.940
15148.967
16145.800
17142.088
18138.291
19134.936
20132.284
21129.714
22126.845
23124.833
24121.893
25120.047
26118.454
27116.023
28114.090
29111.838
30109.356
31107.081
32104.767
33102.938
34101.133
3598.653
3696.670
3794.688
3892.840
3991.322
4089.326
4187.396
4285.967
4384.763
4483.110
4581.624
4679.963
4778.457
4876.494
4975.010
5073.409
5171.957
5270.508
5368.815
5467.201
5565.567
5663.593
5762.430
5861.259
5959.976
6058.299
6156.634
6255.423
6354.297
6452.919
6551.852
6650.765
6749.753
6848.440
6947.098
7046.137
7144.829
7243.786
7342.569
7441.487
7540.294
7639.234
7738.086
7837.031
7936.027
8034.719
8133.498
8232.345
8331.045
8429.964
8529.033
8627.787
8726.514
8825.497
8924.285
9022.949
9121.714
9220.270
9318.748
9416.917
9515.620
9614.143
9712.016
9810.210
998.132


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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