Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys



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Probability distribution for Goulburn River at Dohertys ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile20.6537.402
Median27.31711.221
Mean28.99313.081
75% Quartile35.33816.601
Interquartile Range14.6859.200

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
167.27343.258
259.45235.659
355.30833.033
452.10631.008
550.13629.580
648.79027.689
747.16126.420
845.99425.278
944.81224.176
1043.93923.372
1143.10422.719
1242.15622.012
1341.56021.485
1440.93320.965
1540.15720.402
1639.65619.960
1739.04519.452
1838.53018.941
1938.14918.496
2037.58318.150
2136.92817.818
2236.44617.452
2336.08717.198
2435.68016.830
2535.34116.601
2634.98216.405
2734.60316.109
2834.19615.875
2933.85915.604
3033.52015.308
3133.18615.039
3232.76914.767
3332.36814.554
3431.98314.344
3531.65314.058
3631.25013.831
3730.92513.605
3830.65313.394
3930.27713.222
4029.99212.997
4129.70312.780
4229.40712.620
4329.13312.485
4428.84512.300
4528.59612.134
4628.31311.949
4728.06511.782
4827.81611.563
4927.56911.399
5027.31711.221
5127.00211.059
5226.70410.898
5326.49410.710
5426.27110.530
5526.05610.347
5625.79410.126
5725.4719.996
5825.2079.864
5924.8929.719
6024.6579.529
6124.4119.340
6224.2289.201
6323.9569.072
6423.7198.913
6523.4648.789
6623.1858.662
6722.9238.544
6822.6208.389
6922.3408.230
7022.0998.115
7121.7297.958
7221.5047.832
7321.2137.683
7420.9437.550
7520.6467.401
7620.3617.269
7720.1467.123
7819.8636.988
7919.5186.858
8019.2566.687
8118.9886.525
8218.6916.370
8318.4166.193
8418.0156.043
8517.7525.913
8617.4305.735
8717.0945.550
8816.5705.399
8916.1325.216
9015.6455.010
9115.1194.814
9214.6484.578
9314.0904.321
9413.6083.999
9513.1633.761
9612.5253.477
9711.8353.042
9810.8862.641
999.2682.133


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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