Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys



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Probability distribution for Goulburn River at Dohertys ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.3127.402
Median15.18711.221
Mean16.35513.081
75% Quartile20.16716.601
Interquartile Range8.8559.200

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.05943.258
235.03635.659
332.63433.033
430.58431.008
529.32629.580
628.22227.689
727.57326.420
826.79025.278
926.09124.176
1025.54923.372
1125.00322.719
1224.58322.012
1324.12221.485
1423.69920.965
1523.26820.402
1622.87719.960
1722.50219.452
1822.02218.941
1921.71418.496
2021.40818.150
2121.16417.818
2220.90217.452
2320.67417.198
2420.41916.830
2520.17116.601
2619.88816.405
2719.67516.109
2819.40715.875
2919.20615.604
3018.98615.308
3118.74615.039
3218.53414.767
3318.31714.554
3418.06514.344
3517.86514.058
3617.66913.831
3717.46813.605
3817.24413.394
3917.03113.222
4016.85312.997
4116.66012.780
4216.51212.620
4316.33912.485
4416.15112.300
4515.99112.134
4615.80811.949
4715.65011.782
4815.48411.563
4915.34311.399
5015.18711.221
5115.02711.059
5214.87610.898
5314.70610.710
5414.59710.530
5514.41910.347
5614.27510.126
5714.0979.996
5813.9439.864
5913.7939.719
6013.6309.529
6113.4629.340
6213.3259.201
6313.1999.072
6413.0558.913
6512.8948.789
6612.7438.662
6712.6068.544
6812.4738.389
6912.2888.230
7012.0898.115
7111.9807.958
7211.8417.832
7311.6637.683
7411.4597.550
7511.3097.401
7611.1627.269
7710.9897.123
7810.8436.988
7910.6666.858
8010.5106.687
8110.3516.525
8210.1446.370
839.9166.193
849.7406.043
859.5285.913
869.3595.735
879.1445.550
888.8965.399
898.6215.216
908.3685.010
918.1104.814
927.8374.578
937.5404.321
947.2643.999
956.9603.761
966.4733.477
975.9923.042
985.4572.641
994.5642.133


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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