Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep64.84138.5815.45452.755135.392
Sep-Oct109.90772.7688.20980.170226.322
Sep-Nov132.49585.0409.87098.013287.289

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10230.445
20194.098
30170.235
40147.907
50128.503
60107.899
7088.988
8068.606
9044.519

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1322.121
2292.968
3281.513
4272.078
5265.073
6255.295
7248.387
8241.897
9235.377
10230.445
11226.325
12221.743
13218.241
14214.705
15210.787
16207.651
17203.958
18200.158
19196.782
20194.098
21191.486
22188.553
23186.486
24183.449
25181.530
26179.868
27177.319
28175.279
29172.889
30170.235
31167.784
32165.272
33163.271
34161.284
35158.531
36156.308
37154.069
38151.963
39150.219
40147.907
41145.648
42143.961
43142.529
44140.548
45138.751
46136.723
47134.866
48132.417
49130.545
50128.503
51126.632
52124.742
53122.510
54120.352
55118.139
56115.424
57113.802
58112.151
59110.323
60107.899
61105.451
62103.646
63101.946
6499.840
6598.186
6696.482
6794.878
6892.768
6990.578
7088.988
7186.795
7285.022
7382.924
7481.033
7578.918
7677.013
7774.919
7872.970
7971.090
8068.606
8166.251
8263.994
8361.413
8459.237
8557.341
8654.777
8752.119
8849.973
8947.392
9044.519
9141.839
9238.683
9335.340
9431.311
9528.464
9625.241
9720.668
9816.882
9912.691


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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