Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1968) (GL)
Oct45.06634.1872.75527.415150.662
Oct-Nov67.65446.4594.41645.258201.814
Oct-Dec80.95856.9375.34160.303222.271

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10117.951152.560
2092.431120.833
3076.449101.606
4064.43585.024
5055.43771.818
6046.81659.027
7038.41548.314
8030.50137.630
9021.37525.501

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1193.139240.204
2168.398211.603
3155.823200.505
4148.610191.438
5140.571184.759
6134.648175.518
7129.640169.054
8125.500163.035
9121.488157.048
10117.951152.560
11114.507148.840
12111.134144.737
13108.585141.625
14106.243138.507
15103.373135.079
16100.235132.357
1797.652129.177
1896.011125.936
1994.191123.082
2092.431120.833
2190.788118.659
2288.977116.237
2387.583114.544
2485.991112.074
2584.304110.526
2682.162109.192
2780.653107.160
2879.075105.547
2977.687103.671
3076.449101.606
3174.94299.716
3273.73797.796
3372.45296.280
3471.10194.785
3569.77992.733
3668.49791.093
3767.35289.455
3866.29787.928
3965.35786.673
4064.43585.024
4163.39583.428
4262.54982.246
4361.82781.250
4460.91079.882
4559.95278.651
4658.97477.273
4758.01476.022
4857.05674.390
4956.29273.154
5055.43771.818
5154.74370.604
5253.68369.390
5352.82667.968
5452.06266.609
5551.25365.229
5650.36463.555
5749.42362.566
5848.39261.566
5947.57060.468
6046.81659.027
6145.91757.588
6245.11356.538
6344.36955.556
6443.63754.351
6542.79253.412
6642.06752.452
6741.06651.555
6840.24550.385
6939.27649.181
7038.41548.314
7137.62247.127
7236.91146.175
7336.18445.057
7435.51244.056
7534.73642.945
7634.10741.951
7733.23440.866
7832.33839.861
7931.44838.897
8030.50137.630
8129.58136.436
8228.61735.296
8327.76733.998
8426.87532.906
8526.07731.956
8625.20230.671
8724.44529.339
8823.32628.261
8922.28326.959
9021.37525.501
9120.14024.129
9218.63622.494
9317.45120.730
9416.24118.547
9514.94216.955
9613.08415.090
9711.54812.291
989.6639.787
996.9626.724


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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