Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Nov23.09517.47010.6011.66118.96060.968
Nov-Dec36.60335.45717.7732.58733.52995.309
Nov-Jan43.15744.56820.6053.85540.621106.552

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1062.19179.334
2051.70862.946
3044.48452.995
4038.62944.405
5033.95337.565
6029.50630.946
7025.17725.413
8020.71619.912
9015.38713.696

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
194.371124.403
286.218109.722
379.888104.019
476.09599.357
573.09895.921
670.13691.165
767.55787.836
865.73884.735
964.20181.649
1062.19179.334
1160.79777.415
1259.43975.298
1358.51273.691
1457.37772.081
1556.20170.310
1655.28068.904
1754.24167.260
1853.39065.585
1952.43664.110
2051.70862.946
2151.00461.822
2250.11760.569
2349.20059.693
2448.52358.414
2547.76457.613
2647.00756.923
2746.39555.871
2845.70155.036
2945.05054.064
3044.48452.995
3143.70352.016
3243.02751.022
3342.46950.237
3441.83749.462
3541.27648.399
3640.68747.550
3740.24546.701
3839.60645.910
3939.10145.260
4038.62944.405
4138.03743.579
4237.35942.966
4336.94042.450
4436.49741.741
4536.05041.104
4635.71440.390
4735.16639.742
4834.71038.897
4934.31638.257
5033.95337.565
5133.37836.937
5232.84636.308
5332.35435.572
5431.95734.868
5531.55134.154
5631.01633.288
5730.67732.776
5830.31532.259
5929.90531.691
6029.50630.946
6129.07530.202
6228.65129.659
6328.24229.152
6427.86828.529
6527.38328.044
6627.00927.549
6726.50027.086
6826.11226.481
6925.62025.860
7025.17725.413
7124.75724.801
7224.38924.310
7323.92823.734
7423.45123.218
7522.92222.646
7622.42622.134
7722.00621.576
7821.58821.059
7921.14420.563
8020.71619.912
8120.29519.298
8219.85218.713
8319.44118.046
8418.97617.486
8518.34616.999
8617.78116.341
8717.12515.659
8816.51215.107
8915.99814.441
9015.38713.696
9114.78212.996
9214.21712.162
9313.36511.263
9412.60610.153
9511.8649.345
9610.8368.399
979.9216.983
988.7825.720
996.9384.180


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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