Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Feb4.3827.7782.4280.2495.48228.008
Feb-Mar8.35737.1605.8450.98912.33739.981
Feb-Apr12.54546.5298.6513.02717.19851.310

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.75818.591
2010.42514.353
309.02912.105
407.85010.311
506.9768.956
606.1797.688
705.4196.646
804.5715.613
903.5784.427

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.75835.658
218.86428.989
317.53026.724
416.28224.991
515.31723.778
614.60722.182
714.02921.120
813.54220.167
913.11619.254
1012.75818.591
1112.45618.054
1212.18317.475
1311.95717.045
1411.70616.622
1511.45216.165
1611.22915.808
1711.02915.398
1810.84514.987
1910.62714.630
2010.42514.353
2110.28614.088
2210.13213.797
239.98813.595
249.82913.303
259.72813.122
269.64212.968
279.47112.734
289.32512.549
299.17112.337
309.02912.105
318.89311.894
328.76411.682
338.63411.516
348.50711.353
358.39511.130
368.25710.954
378.16410.779
388.06410.617
397.96610.484
407.85010.311
417.74810.144
427.64510.021
437.5449.918
447.4609.777
457.3789.650
467.2899.509
477.2039.382
487.1339.216
497.0579.091
506.9768.956
516.9098.834
526.8268.713
536.7518.571
546.6738.435
556.6028.298
566.5048.133
576.4378.035
586.3587.937
596.2607.829
606.1797.688
616.1117.547
626.0417.445
635.9727.349
645.8787.232
655.8087.140
665.7377.047
675.6556.960
685.5846.847
695.4936.730
705.4196.646
715.3256.531
725.2306.439
735.1446.331
745.0626.234
754.9746.127
764.8926.031
774.8125.926
784.7345.829
794.6485.735
804.5715.613
814.4805.497
824.4015.386
834.2975.260
844.2115.154
854.1265.061
864.0174.936
873.9094.805
883.7974.699
893.6964.571
903.5784.427
913.4524.291
923.3354.127
933.2293.950
943.0593.729
952.9033.567
962.7373.375
972.5293.082
982.2592.816
991.9372.482


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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