Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1968) (GL)
Oct45.30825.23634.1872.75528.544150.662
Oct-Nov68.12535.83746.4594.41647.880201.814
Oct-Dec81.49243.00856.9375.34162.723222.271

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10143.545152.560
20115.795120.833
3097.903101.606
4084.25685.024
5073.29371.818
6062.52859.027
7052.18648.314
8041.82637.630
9030.32225.501

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1231.699240.204
2203.118211.603
3187.046200.505
4176.703191.438
5168.548184.759
6162.651175.518
7157.163169.054
8152.052163.035
9147.720157.048
10143.545152.560
11140.080148.840
12136.865144.737
13133.960141.625
14131.315138.507
15128.374135.079
16125.363132.357
17122.382129.177
18119.710125.936
19117.621123.082
20115.795120.833
21113.671118.659
22111.513116.237
23109.747114.544
24108.398112.074
25106.229110.526
26104.525109.192
27103.088107.160
28101.208105.547
2999.717103.671
3097.903101.606
3196.62099.716
3294.86597.796
3393.19396.280
3491.91494.785
3590.68592.733
3689.15991.093
3788.00389.455
3886.82787.928
3985.23986.673
4084.25685.024
4183.13783.428
4281.95982.246
4380.57081.250
4479.41979.882
4578.66878.651
4677.38877.273
4776.50776.022
4875.38074.390
4974.14373.154
5073.29371.818
5171.87270.604
5270.65469.390
5369.63767.968
5468.66266.609
5567.47265.229
5666.58963.555
5765.70462.566
5864.44061.566
5963.35160.468
6062.52859.027
6161.54957.588
6260.57456.538
6359.77255.556
6458.55654.351
6557.58553.412
6656.56252.452
6755.62251.555
6854.63250.385
6953.59349.181
7052.18648.314
7151.12447.127
7250.15446.175
7349.43445.057
7448.32444.056
7547.43942.945
7646.23141.951
7745.09540.866
7844.08739.861
7942.90438.897
8041.82637.630
8140.78636.436
8239.69335.296
8338.70833.998
8437.24632.906
8535.97531.956
8634.69030.671
8733.65429.339
8832.62928.261
8931.59126.959
9030.32225.501
9128.75224.129
9227.31522.494
9325.63720.730
9423.85018.547
9522.42816.955
9620.38615.090
9718.08712.291
9815.3269.787
9912.1006.724


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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