Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Feb4.3402.4282.2550.2495.60928.008
Feb-Mar8.3035.8454.7670.98912.66639.981
Feb-Apr12.4618.6517.8733.02717.58751.310

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.25118.591
2012.48414.353
3010.84212.105
409.42510.311
508.4158.956
607.4907.688
706.5786.646
805.5765.613
904.3774.427

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.57235.658
222.54228.989
320.92726.724
419.31324.991
518.19823.778
617.37022.182
716.74921.120
816.19320.167
915.64819.254
1015.25118.591
1114.99018.054
1214.60817.475
1314.27217.045
1413.96916.622
1513.69916.165
1613.42715.808
1713.18415.398
1812.92814.987
1912.69914.630
2012.48414.353
2112.30714.088
2212.12513.797
2311.98713.595
2411.84713.303
2511.68713.122
2611.52312.968
2711.36712.734
2811.20312.549
2911.02112.337
3010.84212.105
3110.66211.894
3210.50611.682
3310.36411.516
3410.23611.353
3510.10411.130
369.92210.954
379.80310.779
389.66610.617
399.56310.484
409.42510.311
419.31910.144
429.21010.021
439.1059.918
448.9799.777
458.8879.650
468.7919.509
478.6559.382
488.5889.216
498.4979.091
508.4158.956
518.3318.834
528.2348.713
538.1428.571
548.0568.435
557.9708.298
567.8908.133
577.7738.035
587.6787.937
597.5927.829
607.4907.688
617.3897.547
627.2967.445
637.2057.349
647.0987.232
657.0127.140
666.9317.047
676.8456.960
686.7606.847
696.6706.730
706.5786.646
716.4746.531
726.3766.439
736.2716.331
746.1896.234
756.0836.127
765.9766.031
775.8655.926
785.7665.829
795.6635.735
805.5765.613
815.4865.497
825.3815.386
835.2625.260
845.1505.154
855.0365.061
864.9084.936
874.7754.805
884.6674.699
894.5444.571
904.3774.427
914.2574.291
924.1074.127
933.9623.950
943.7603.729
953.5703.567
963.4103.375
973.1603.082
982.8552.816
992.4312.482


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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