Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jun25.97712.92726.8133.57426.61521.787
Jun-Jul79.34170.985116.7479.29977.269171.507
Jun-Aug154.263219.017177.26516.091146.604313.957

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10233.763250.735
20204.806212.800
30184.329187.854
40165.745164.448
50148.631144.011
60131.701122.128
70113.717101.759
8090.79879.299
9061.34751.737

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1308.397346.330
2289.819315.935
3276.203303.992
4266.844294.154
5259.703286.849
6252.884276.653
7247.062269.449
8242.539262.680
9237.282255.880
10233.763250.735
11230.210246.437
12227.238241.656
13224.010238.002
14220.980234.313
15218.389230.224
16215.269226.951
17212.555223.095
18210.291219.129
19207.152215.603
20204.806212.800
21202.760210.071
22200.775207.007
23198.172204.848
24195.879201.674
25194.054199.668
26192.014197.930
27189.829195.265
28188.064193.131
29185.943190.631
30184.329187.854
31182.190185.288
32180.575182.658
33178.355180.562
34176.800178.481
35174.518175.595
36172.773173.265
37171.493170.917
38169.509168.707
39167.600166.876
40165.745164.448
41164.031162.075
42162.159160.301
43160.137158.796
44158.567156.712
45156.572154.820
46154.793152.683
47152.745150.726
48151.411148.144
49150.275146.168
50148.631144.011
51146.973142.033
52144.922140.033
53143.276137.669
54141.443135.382
55140.014133.034
56138.541130.149
57136.609128.423
58135.078126.665
59133.187124.716
60131.701122.128
61130.099119.510
62128.169117.577
63126.479115.753
64124.530113.490
65122.818111.710
66121.146109.873
67119.241108.142
68117.515105.860
69115.556103.486
70113.717101.759
71111.76199.372
72109.60197.438
73107.51095.143
74105.31093.069
75103.06890.744
76100.73988.643
7797.97286.328
7895.69784.165
7992.87982.073
8090.79879.299
8188.51276.658
8285.67974.117
8382.95271.198
8480.76768.727
8577.48966.566
8674.73663.629
8771.78360.571
8868.09358.089
8965.84555.091
9061.34751.737
9156.04248.593
9252.43344.873
9346.19340.912
9441.34636.119
9535.16032.721
9626.98328.870
9717.69223.412
989.23318.914
990.00013.980


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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