Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys



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Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys ( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jul53.36458.05789.9345.72550.654149.720
Jul-Aug128.286206.090150.45212.517119.990292.170
Jul-Sep193.127244.671174.01217.971172.745391.268

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10303.308301.510
20269.854261.328
30245.042234.862
40224.240209.956
50204.281188.084
60184.828164.397
70165.114141.851
80140.338115.838
90104.49380.226

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1394.791402.693
2365.630370.524
3353.451357.885
4340.601347.471
5333.551339.740
6326.715328.948
7320.748321.323
8314.090314.156
9308.231306.958
10303.308301.510
11299.210296.959
12295.385291.898
13292.359288.028
14288.613284.121
15285.785279.790
16281.470276.322
17278.696272.238
18275.728268.035
19272.573264.298
20269.854261.328
21267.017258.435
22264.779255.187
23261.834252.897
24259.767249.530
25257.345247.403
26254.987245.559
27252.794242.730
28249.939240.465
29247.623237.811
30245.042234.862
31243.141232.137
32240.594229.342
33238.267227.114
34236.729224.900
35234.688221.831
36232.878219.351
37230.708216.851
38228.968214.497
39226.782212.546
40224.240209.956
41222.317207.424
42220.343205.531
43218.367203.923
44216.674201.695
45214.083199.672
46212.116197.386
47210.337195.290
48208.275192.521
49206.257190.401
50204.281188.084
51202.548185.957
52200.448183.805
53198.443181.257
54196.757178.788
55195.075176.249
56193.106173.124
57191.323171.252
58188.878169.341
59186.542167.220
60184.828164.397
61182.876161.533
62180.949159.413
63179.167157.409
64177.143154.916
65175.291152.949
66173.451150.914
67171.551148.990
68169.428146.447
69167.345143.791
70165.114141.851
71162.760139.158
72160.690136.966
73158.042134.353
74155.596131.979
75152.768129.301
76150.591126.867
77148.150124.167
78146.033121.626
79143.125119.150
80140.338115.838
81137.578112.651
82134.249109.550
83130.782105.942
84127.775102.846
85124.829100.104
86121.28096.322
87117.36792.311
88112.89688.995
89108.55884.910
90104.49380.226
9199.64275.716
9294.14670.219
9388.62764.156
9482.12256.510
9576.34550.882
9665.59544.305
9755.54834.707
9842.47026.711
9922.83418.145


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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