Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


Return to catchment list
Product list for Goulburn River at Dohertys



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Jan6.1276.2238.0500.9254.8342.507
Jan-Feb10.0228.68611.6701.1747.75430.516
Jan-Mar13.06212.07320.2261.91510.10142.488

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.27423.372
2015.83118.150
3014.03215.308
4012.35212.997
5011.05311.221
609.8589.529
708.7188.115
807.4686.687
905.8405.010

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.26843.258
226.88035.659
324.51333.033
423.26031.008
522.24829.580
621.41527.689
720.80926.420
820.23125.278
919.76124.176
1019.27423.372
1118.76822.719
1218.40822.012
1318.04321.485
1417.71420.965
1517.41720.402
1617.03919.960
1716.69419.452
1816.38718.941
1916.10718.496
2015.83118.150
2115.65317.818
2215.49217.452
2315.27817.198
2415.05516.830
2514.88416.601
2614.68616.405
2714.53316.109
2814.38615.875
2914.21115.604
3014.03215.308
3113.84615.039
3213.70314.767
3313.52114.554
3413.32814.344
3513.16014.058
3612.97313.831
3712.81413.605
3812.64713.394
3912.45513.222
4012.35212.997
4112.20012.780
4212.06412.620
4311.94212.485
4411.81712.300
4511.68312.134
4611.55711.949
4711.43311.782
4811.29611.563
4911.16511.399
5011.05311.221
5110.93611.059
5210.79810.898
5310.67610.710
5410.56010.530
5510.46010.347
5610.33610.126
5710.2069.996
5810.1059.864
599.9919.719
609.8589.529
619.7459.340
629.6259.201
639.5129.072
649.4078.913
659.3008.789
669.1758.662
679.0758.544
688.9448.389
698.8438.230
708.7188.115
718.6087.958
728.4687.832
738.3757.683
748.2267.550
758.0897.401
767.9667.269
777.8547.123
787.7226.988
797.6166.858
807.4686.687
817.3326.525
827.1776.370
837.0436.193
846.8856.043
856.6905.913
866.5315.735
876.3765.550
886.2125.399
896.0385.216
905.8405.010
915.6574.814
925.4354.578
935.2044.321
945.0103.999
954.7473.761
964.3823.477
973.9713.042
983.6122.641
992.9472.133


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence