Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goulburn River at Dohertys ( Jan 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan6.5549.1122.8330.9257.09220.454
Jan-Feb10.93716.8895.2611.17412.57442.670
Jan-Mar14.91246.2728.6771.91519.42955.946

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.84323.372
2013.74218.150
3012.08815.308
4010.62212.997
509.46011.221
608.4039.529
707.3758.115
806.2896.687
904.8525.010

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
127.06343.258
223.79035.659
321.50733.033
420.40731.008
519.48929.580
618.62327.689
718.16526.420
817.72425.278
917.21124.176
1016.84323.372
1116.37222.719
1216.02222.012
1315.71421.485
1415.36720.965
1515.07720.402
1614.72319.960
1714.49819.452
1814.19918.941
1913.98818.496
2013.74218.150
2113.54617.818
2213.39317.452
2313.24317.198
2413.03616.830
2512.83216.601
2612.67116.405
2712.50216.109
2812.36915.875
2912.26715.604
3012.08815.308
3111.93315.039
3211.79914.767
3311.63714.554
3411.51414.344
3511.32814.058
3611.18613.831
3711.02713.605
3810.88313.394
3910.74113.222
4010.62212.997
4110.47812.780
4210.35612.620
4310.23212.485
4410.10912.300
4510.00412.134
469.88511.949
479.78011.782
489.66111.563
499.55511.399
509.46011.221
519.35411.059
529.24310.898
539.13710.710
549.02010.530
558.90810.347
568.82710.126
578.7079.996
588.6119.864
598.5039.719
608.4039.529
618.3049.340
628.1979.201
638.1209.072
648.0188.913
657.9168.789
667.8158.662
677.7138.544
687.5998.389
697.4878.230
707.3758.115
717.2747.958
727.1697.832
737.0927.683
746.9577.550
756.8457.401
766.7497.269
776.6447.123
786.5336.988
796.4136.858
806.2896.687
816.1736.525
826.0626.370
835.9296.193
845.7966.043
855.6055.913
865.4635.735
875.2975.550
885.1555.399
895.0215.216
904.8525.010
914.6564.814
924.5364.578
934.3114.321
944.1163.999
953.8613.761
963.5553.477
973.2053.042
982.8702.641
992.2152.133


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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