Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101230.4331285.901
201062.7461091.790
30944.393964.714
40845.674846.240
50757.462743.714
60673.442635.293
70593.126535.971
80501.270428.265
90384.764296.752

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11715.5571776.687
21563.6491620.535
31484.0401559.195
41422.4151508.673
51375.6901471.172
61342.3821418.838
71307.1851381.873
81281.5041347.147
91257.7481312.277
101230.4331285.901
111206.9561263.873
121184.8741239.384
131166.4121220.669
141151.0651201.782
151133.2201180.855
161119.8401164.108
171103.7801144.390
181091.6281124.115
191077.4151106.102
201062.7461091.790
211052.6391077.859
221040.7301062.227
231028.3431051.214
241015.5231035.035
251005.7971024.816
26994.9711015.967
27983.8451002.398
28969.567991.541
29958.558978.827
30944.393964.714
31933.351951.688
32922.933938.340
33913.898927.714
34905.325917.162
35894.636902.552
36884.063890.761
37873.249878.892
38862.178867.728
39854.297858.488
40845.674846.240
41836.207834.286
42827.976825.357
43820.042817.785
44811.766807.310
45801.006797.812
46793.133787.093
47782.335777.287
48773.761764.363
49765.612754.485
50757.462743.714
51748.825733.850
52739.539723.892
53731.081712.133
54721.735700.772
55712.994689.126
56707.389674.843
57698.217666.317
58690.033657.635
59682.706648.028
60673.442635.293
61666.945622.437
62659.277612.958
63651.270604.032
64642.020592.973
65633.736584.288
66627.226575.339
67619.410566.916
68611.984555.834
69603.041544.328
70593.126535.971
71584.861524.439
72575.115515.111
73566.590504.065
74557.351494.097
75548.914482.939
76538.495472.874
77529.650461.798
78519.472451.469
79508.821441.484
80501.270428.265
81491.078415.696
82479.015403.608
83469.835389.731
84462.305377.981
85450.616367.701
86439.665353.721
87426.098339.140
88412.183327.280
89400.163312.907
90384.764296.752
91371.186281.510
92356.209263.323
93341.517243.723
94324.273219.577
95303.879202.102
96277.407181.831
97256.692152.017
98221.724126.170
99178.29195.948


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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