Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101357.1181328.976
201171.1951129.635
301050.993998.976
40948.574876.976
50853.012771.201
60770.717659.097
70682.361556.184
80580.489444.478
90450.715308.614

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11897.7651832.469
21729.8901672.311
31647.1221609.391
41570.9871557.565
51523.2231519.093
61471.6841465.399
71433.3581427.470
81408.1801391.835
91379.9471356.048
101357.1181328.976
111332.5641306.365
121312.0571281.224
131291.0031262.010
141272.2361242.617
151254.4541221.127
161236.5831203.928
171217.2351183.675
181200.3931162.847
191185.7221144.340
201171.1951129.635
211158.8781115.319
221146.6311099.252
231135.6421087.932
241121.2691071.300
251109.2411060.793
261097.7731051.694
271085.8171037.739
281074.4651026.573
291061.7461013.495
301050.993998.976
311041.325985.572
321032.587971.834
331023.487960.896
341013.288950.034
351002.554934.990
36990.728922.848
37980.587910.622
38968.443899.120
39958.918889.598
40948.574876.976
41936.126864.654
42927.200855.448
43917.245847.640
44908.687836.837
45899.973827.039
46892.534815.980
47882.883805.861
48871.063792.521
49861.884782.323
50853.012771.201
51843.878761.012
52835.891750.725
53825.596738.574
54818.907726.831
55809.765714.791
56803.557700.022
57795.831691.202
58787.379682.220
59778.595672.279
60770.717659.097
61760.159645.787
62750.854635.971
63742.932626.726
64732.900615.269
65727.816606.270
66718.662596.997
67710.099588.266
68700.963576.778
69692.265564.849
70682.361556.184
71675.066544.224
72664.761534.550
73655.954523.092
74645.342512.753
75634.344501.178
76625.902490.739
77614.400479.250
78602.339468.537
79593.147458.184
80580.489444.478
81568.924431.450
82559.760418.927
83546.303404.556
84534.593392.395
85521.858381.762
86507.554367.313
87492.383352.259
88479.647340.028
89462.710325.224
90450.715308.614
91434.971292.975
92419.877274.363
93401.356254.371
94381.622229.855
95348.454212.202
96324.250191.834
97283.318162.124
98251.959136.650
99198.949107.265


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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