Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10952.544971.209
20829.030815.705
30736.162714.537
40654.828620.998
50589.421540.967
60524.546457.641
70462.811382.855
80390.274303.770
90302.942210.139

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11310.6481366.359
21204.6511240.498
31137.8371191.079
41096.4341150.389
51063.2751120.196
61037.4211078.077
71007.1071048.342
8987.3741020.419
9968.425992.396
10952.544971.209
11936.868953.524
12923.813933.871
13910.903918.860
14899.495903.717
15884.941886.949
16872.159873.536
17862.111857.753
18849.476841.536
19838.684827.137
20829.030815.705
21816.258804.582
22806.145792.110
23795.963783.329
24787.428770.437
25779.804762.299
26770.127755.256
27761.311744.463
28752.983735.834
29744.877725.736
30736.162714.537
31728.174704.209
32720.429693.635
33711.191685.226
34703.577676.882
35695.074665.341
36686.374656.037
37677.048646.681
38670.229637.891
39662.192630.622
40654.828620.998
41647.955611.616
42640.759604.617
43634.716598.686
44626.724590.491
45620.280583.069
46614.822574.703
47607.570567.059
48602.328557.000
49595.483549.325
50589.421540.967
51582.388533.324
52576.428525.620
53569.161516.538
54562.823507.780
55555.736498.820
56547.324487.855
57541.605481.323
58536.714474.682
59529.892467.345
60524.546457.641
61518.610447.870
62510.929440.682
63504.808433.926
64498.677425.574
65492.622419.029
66487.563412.299
67482.380405.977
68476.054397.676
69470.817389.082
70462.811382.855
71457.106374.282
72450.378367.367
73444.225359.197
74436.945351.846
75429.903343.638
76422.405336.256
77414.384328.154
78407.613320.620
79399.604313.357
80390.274303.770
81381.199294.687
82372.811285.980
83364.239276.017
84356.560267.610
85348.315260.276
86340.268250.331
87331.422239.996
88323.822231.614
89314.393221.487
90302.942210.139
91293.848199.465
92281.918186.764
93271.830173.111
94261.084156.328
95244.302144.194
96232.316130.118
97211.214109.374
98178.88191.301
99147.48969.978


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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