Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10213.318376.759
20176.522288.678
30150.258240.931
40130.262202.383
50113.465172.826
6099.482144.740
7084.952121.559
8069.75598.110
9052.88870.722

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1344.124715.517
2305.014586.037
3281.651540.980
4265.318506.657
5252.713481.622
6243.059449.971
7233.414428.546
8225.348409.032
9219.534390.359
10213.318376.759
11208.841365.744
12205.092353.887
13200.715344.975
14197.546336.091
15193.839326.577
16189.920319.218
17186.036310.557
18183.258301.895
19179.930294.452
20176.522288.678
21173.024283.124
22169.905276.762
23166.968272.711
24163.732266.479
25160.860262.699
26158.959259.428
27156.533254.332
28154.359250.336
29152.424245.946
30150.258240.931
31148.005236.482
32145.520231.820
33143.410228.257
34141.372224.915
35139.539220.023
36137.680216.309
37135.631212.501
38134.054209.045
39132.316206.139
40130.262202.383
41128.869198.747
42126.933196.114
43124.893193.823
44123.205190.779
45121.519188.038
46119.985184.899
47118.062182.193
48116.494178.558
49114.841175.764
50113.465172.826
51112.211170.154
52110.945167.533
53109.382164.310
54108.027161.432
55106.699158.238
56105.418154.714
57103.706152.548
58102.208150.328
59101.201147.978
6099.482144.740
6198.034141.683
6296.971139.422
6395.027137.266
6493.714134.701
6592.148132.659
6690.491130.571
6789.203128.619
6887.707126.071
6986.371123.449
7084.952121.559
7183.416118.970
7281.948116.892
7380.582114.448
7479.116112.258
7577.706109.823
7675.853107.641
7774.165105.254
7872.709103.041
7971.047100.913
8069.75598.110
8168.42995.461
8266.88292.924
8365.23890.024
8464.02187.577
8562.39885.441
8660.72182.541
8759.25979.520
8857.32977.063
8955.16074.082
9052.88870.722
9150.77867.537
9248.17363.711
9345.88759.543
9443.11154.321
9539.86450.462
9637.26845.878
9733.39238.859
9828.99932.413
9921.12624.268


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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