Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1092.796120.365
2075.31494.502
3064.11680.026
4055.41168.002
5047.71558.577
6041.20449.433
7034.23841.641
8026.89933.610
9017.87323.928

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1155.794212.970
2136.474178.466
3124.254166.317
4116.340156.855
5109.765150.133
6105.320141.162
7101.794135.101
898.761129.607
995.586124.277
1092.796120.365
1190.510117.176
1288.406113.711
1386.261111.119
1484.527108.550
1582.653105.760
1680.803103.567
1779.299101.032
1877.94998.475
1976.66996.245
2075.31494.502
2174.12992.827
2273.16090.975
2371.94289.687
2470.66087.818
2569.43286.653
2668.33685.654
2766.77184.137
2865.81282.938
2964.97881.549
3064.11680.026
3163.25178.639
3262.56377.234
3361.66276.129
3460.76375.042
3559.96673.554
3658.99272.368
3758.01571.187
3857.10670.088
3956.43969.186
4055.41168.002
4154.74966.860
4253.80766.014
4352.91165.302
4452.05364.325
4551.24063.446
4650.56562.464
4750.00761.573
4849.12260.409
4948.39659.529
5047.71558.577
5147.18257.713
5246.27656.847
5345.60055.834
5444.95654.863
5544.45953.878
5643.72952.681
5743.00751.973
5842.33951.256
5941.74250.469
6041.20449.433
6140.65948.396
6240.04447.638
6339.24446.928
6438.54546.054
6537.73945.372
6637.18544.673
6736.59244.019
6835.86443.162
6934.95442.279
7034.23841.641
7133.68540.764
7233.04240.059
7332.46639.227
7431.67338.481
7530.97837.648
7630.18436.900
7729.31736.079
7828.47135.317
7927.67534.581
8026.89933.610
8126.04932.688
8225.36731.803
8324.49830.788
8423.81429.929
8522.86329.176
8621.82728.151
8721.09627.078
8820.03126.202
8918.87425.136
9017.87323.928
9116.78722.778
9215.49021.388
9314.41819.864
9413.22217.940
9511.89716.506
969.89614.789
977.88312.131
984.8709.655
991.8296.473


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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