Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10410.639
20288.800
30229.033
40184.128
50152.006
60123.487
70101.288
8080.480
9058.266

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1995.749
2751.466
3672.754
4614.133
5573.937
6522.181
7488.449
8458.736
9430.706
10410.639
11394.592
12377.480
13364.899
14352.623
15339.496
16329.339
17317.762
18306.276
19296.413
20288.800
21281.572
22273.672
23268.237
24260.442
25255.632
26251.536
27245.380
28240.558
29235.029
30229.033
31223.630
32218.220
33214.002
34209.891
35204.321
36199.929
37195.597
38191.603
39188.355
40184.128
41180.088
42177.124
43174.645
44171.269
45168.259
46164.920
47161.918
48158.036
49155.126
50152.006
51149.197
52146.409
53143.174
54140.107
55137.022
56133.317
57131.145
58128.964
59126.585
60123.487
61120.422
62118.201
63116.138
64113.622
65111.675
66109.695
67107.856
68105.470
69103.033
70101.288
7198.914
7297.022
7394.812
7492.846
7590.677
7688.747
7786.651
7884.723
7982.883
8080.480
8178.229
8276.094
8373.678
8471.658
8569.911
8667.562
8765.143
8863.197
8960.862
9058.266
9155.840
9252.970
9349.902
9446.143
9543.428
9640.275
9735.602
9831.481
9926.518


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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