Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101032.8971328.976
20863.7111129.635
30759.689998.976
40666.963876.976
50586.523771.201
60516.461659.097
70440.556556.184
80358.570444.478
90254.793308.614

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11522.8941832.469
21367.5881672.311
31273.6601609.391
41227.7861557.565
51175.4311519.093
61136.8001465.399
71106.3201427.470
81075.5251391.835
91052.7291356.048
101032.8971328.976
111013.6001306.365
12993.4731281.224
13972.7451262.010
14953.4041242.617
15936.7741221.127
16922.4631203.928
17905.0501183.675
18890.1571162.847
19878.8181144.340
20863.7111129.635
21853.4951115.319
22840.3181099.252
23829.8241087.932
24821.3241071.300
25810.5031060.793
26801.0231051.694
27788.8441037.739
28777.3061026.573
29766.9941013.495
30759.689998.976
31751.326985.572
32742.577971.834
33733.161960.896
34722.646950.034
35713.918934.990
36705.363922.848
37696.209910.622
38687.259899.120
39677.500889.598
40666.963876.976
41660.513864.654
42652.313855.448
43642.075847.640
44633.028836.837
45626.560827.039
46618.841815.980
47611.371805.861
48602.251792.521
49593.924782.323
50586.523771.201
51578.799761.012
52571.483750.725
53562.374738.574
54555.817726.831
55548.749714.791
56542.673700.022
57535.419691.202
58528.859682.220
59522.340672.279
60516.461659.097
61509.533645.787
62500.946635.971
63494.254626.726
64486.277615.269
65478.786606.270
66471.198596.997
67462.894588.266
68454.877576.778
69448.381564.849
70440.556556.184
71433.657544.224
72426.151534.550
73418.393523.092
74410.240512.753
75402.136501.178
76391.316490.739
77384.304479.250
78376.185468.537
79366.237458.184
80358.570444.478
81349.215431.450
82338.448418.927
83329.361404.556
84319.605392.395
85309.148381.762
86295.442367.313
87284.269352.259
88275.276340.028
89264.352325.224
90254.793308.614
91243.737292.975
92229.068274.363
93215.849254.371
94197.784229.855
95182.369212.202
96161.761191.834
97135.983162.124
98108.475136.650
9964.220107.265


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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