Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Product list for Total inflow to Lake Eildon


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Lake Eildon(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101339.1311285.901
201165.9161091.790
301046.252964.714
40934.702846.240
50847.106743.714
60760.106635.293
70666.711535.971
80570.931428.265
90444.241296.752

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11860.3411776.687
21696.2881620.535
31605.2031559.195
41537.4181508.673
51490.0561471.172
61441.2071418.838
71412.2981381.873
81386.9771347.147
91362.2971312.277
101339.1311285.901
111317.7151263.873
121294.2941239.384
131271.6601220.669
141253.5701201.782
151238.1811180.855
161225.8801164.108
171211.4111144.390
181195.2611124.115
191180.1141106.102
201165.9161091.790
211153.6041077.859
221141.8311062.227
231131.3211051.214
241118.7651035.035
251107.1631024.816
261094.5901015.967
271080.8861002.398
281069.123991.541
291058.318978.827
301046.252964.714
311033.299951.688
321021.221938.340
331008.103927.714
34996.815917.162
35985.512902.552
36975.959890.761
37965.507878.892
38956.720867.728
39944.203858.488
40934.702846.240
41925.685834.286
42916.978825.357
43908.465817.785
44897.134807.310
45888.250797.812
46878.306787.093
47869.100777.287
48860.252764.363
49854.783754.485
50847.106743.714
51838.049733.850
52828.011723.892
53820.025712.133
54812.719700.772
55804.448689.126
56796.701674.843
57789.240666.317
58779.146657.635
59769.338648.028
60760.106635.293
61750.554622.437
62741.200612.958
63732.234604.032
64723.947592.973
65715.241584.288
66704.929575.339
67696.309566.916
68687.161555.834
69677.317544.328
70666.711535.971
71659.398524.439
72649.402515.111
73641.031504.065
74630.101494.097
75620.421482.939
76610.484472.874
77601.134461.798
78589.635451.469
79581.743441.484
80570.931428.265
81559.126415.696
82550.021403.608
83541.101389.731
84527.317377.981
85516.079367.701
86504.669353.721
87489.937339.140
88474.249327.280
89460.213312.907
90444.241296.752
91429.939281.510
92415.506263.323
93398.141243.723
94375.723219.577
95356.020202.102
96332.109181.831
97302.238152.017
98268.646126.170
99208.23795.948


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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